Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: DJ LeMahieu (left) and Luke Voit (right).
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -125 |
| Red Sox Odds | +107 |
| Over/Under | 10.5 (-106 / -114) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The Yankees and Red Sox renew their rivalry yet again, with New York heading to Boston for a three-game series. This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams, as Boston swept New York in early June.
The Yankees come into the series on a two-game winning streak, and they’ve also won seven of their last nine games.
In contrast, the Red Sox are on a two-game losing streak and have lost four of their last six games. They’ll look to turn things around on Friday with left-hander Martin Pérez on the mound. Domingo Germán will oppose Pérez for the Yankees.
Of the two probable pitchers, Germán was the only one who pitched when the two sides met three weeks ago. That’s probably a good thing if you’re a Boston fan, considering how much Pérez has struggled against New York. I’ll expand on that and much more to get you set for the series opener in this AL East rivalry.
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Yankees Look To Make Up Ground In AL East
Baseball is a long season with many bending corners. Teams can’t get too high or too low.
The Yankees know that all too well, which is why after some rough stretches, they still find themselves just four games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays. But before they can set their sights on the top spot in the AL East, they have to face a Red Sox team that is also ahead of them in the standings.
New York can make this divisional race even more interesting with a solid showing in Boston this weekend. After all, it comes into this series in impressive form, having scored at least five runs in four of its last five outings.
There’s no question the Yankees are the hunters in this spot, with the Red Sox playing the role of prey. The Yankees are riding high with plenty of confidence at the moment, so I’d say the motivation is clearly on their side.
Germán Continues To Make Strides In Fourth Season
It won’t hurt that the Yankees have Germán getting things started in the series opener.
The Dominican native is 4-4 on the season with a 4.17 ERA. In four big-league seasons, Germán is 24-15, but perhaps what’s been even more impressive has been his ability to cut down on his walks in each successive season. His 1.96 BB/9 this season is a 25% decrease from last year (2.45 BB/9).
It’s often a good sign when a team has a pitcher who doesn’t beat themselves by handing out free passes to first base. That’s a big reason why Germán has a respectable 1.19 WHIP.
But if he’s going to take the next step to be a real quality pitcher, he’ll need to reduce his home runs allowed. Although he profiles as a fly-ball pitcher, his 0.99 GB/FB ratio is still too low. That’s led to a HR/FB rate of 15.2% this season. To his credit, he has improved his GB/FB ratio in each of the last three seasons, but it needs to be much better to see any real impact in his HR/FB rate.
However, he has done a decent job against the current hitters in the Red Sox lineup in terms of home runs allowed. Boston’s lineup has only two home runs in 63 at-bats against Germán. That’s a little less than one home run per nine innings, which is much lower than his 1.83 HR/9 ratio this season.
In the 63 at-bats, Germán also limited the hitters to a .309 wOBA. That suggests he’s done a decent job of working around some singles and walks while limiting extra-base hits to Boston’s current group of hitters.
Pérez’s Home Splits Should Be A Concern
Pérez has pretty much been night and day this season depending on which ballpark he’s pitching in.
Though he’s 5-4 with a 4.32 ERA, three of those wins have been on the road, where he has a 2.10 ERA. However, at Fenway Park, he has a 6.68 ERA. The sample size is pretty balanced as well, with 32.1 innings at Fenway and 34.1 innings on the road.
And if we look a little deeper, opposing hitters have a .214/.279/.294 slash line on the road vs. a .313/.399/.515 line when he’s in his home park. His opponents’ wOBA is also .136 points higher at Fenway compared to when he’s on the road.
Unlike Germán, Pérez has really struggled with his command, as evidenced by his 3.24 BB/9 ratio. In fact, in 10 seasons in the majors, he’s had only two years in which he finished with a BB/9 ratio below three. But this season, those numbers are even worse given the home/away splits I mentioned.
His 4.45 BB/9 ratio is more than double compared to when he’s on the road (2.10 BB/9). These are what you call unforced errors, and his 7.70 K/9 ratio isn’t high enough to consistently bail him out of trouble.
Pérez’s lack of command, particularly at home, could prove problematic against a Yankees team that’s second in baseball with a 10.7% walk rate. In fact, New York’s current lineup has already drawn 12 walks against Pérez in the 75 at-bats in which they faced him. They have a .267/.389/.560 slash line against him with a .410 wOBA.
So essentially, the Yankees aren’t just getting the odd guy on base via the walk; their +.400 wOBA suggests they’re also slugging their way on. Their .293 ISO helps to support that assertion.
Here we’ve got a pitcher with poor home splits who is walking twice as many batters in his home park and facing a team with the second-highest walk rate this season that has also had success drawing walks against said pitcher historically.
Are you still with me?
Yankees-Red Sox Pick
There are a few other things in the Yankees’ favor coming into this game: For one, they’re on a 4-0 run when Germán starts on an extra day of rest, and Boston is 1-5 in Pérez’s last six Fenway starts when facing a team above .500.
I like the idea of isolating Pérez by fading him in the first five innings of this game. I think the Yankees have a clear edge in this spot given the two starting pitchers on the mound.
I’m also encouraged by Germán’s 5-1 record (+4.9 units) in the first five innings against Boston.
Pick: Yankees F5 ML (-124)
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