Winslow Townson/Getty Images. Pictured: Gio Urshela is tagged out at the plate by Christian Vazquez during Friday’s game.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | +110 |
| Red Sox Odds | -127 |
| Over/Under | 10 (-108 / -115) |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. | |
After a six-run explosion in the first two innings of Friday’s game, both the Yankees and Red Sox’s offenses took a long nap, which they never seemed to come all the way out of.
Oddsmakers expect that both lineups will be fully awake on Saturday with a total so high, but with both pitchers entering with advantages, could there be value in targeting the total? Let’s have a look at the numbers below.
Will Yankees’ Offense Wake Up Against Eovaldi?
The Yankees have won three series in a row, and seven out of 10, scoring plenty of runs along the way. It’s because of its recent form that New York’s offense has earned a total this high, but as we will get to later on, the matchup might be kind of tricky. We saw how an adverse matchup (a lefty) affected this team on Friday, with nothing to show after a three-run second.
Of course, the Yankees will be happy to see a righty. That’s about where the the relief ends. This team is 16th in weighted runs per 100 pitches against fastballs and 17th against curveballs going against a pitcher in Nathan Eovaldi who throws primarily fastballs with the curve his preferred secondary pitch. It doesn’t help that he’s got great lifetime numbers against them.
Jordan Montgomery will try his best to go blow-for-blow with Eovaldi, and he may have some promise here. He does own a 5.58 FIP against these current Red Sox, but a .303 xwOBA and .246 expected batting average indicate that he’s got plenty of room for his luck to improve. He’ll also be starting from a point of strength against a team that has struggled against southpaws.
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Can Boston Regain Form Against Lefties?
While Boston began the season tearing it up against lefties, the last couple of months have been a different story. The Red Sox have slipped all the way to 13th in wRC+ against southpaws, and are only a couple days removed from getting shut down by Rich Hill at The Trop. So while they’ll be fresh off a nice win on Friday night, they certainly won’t want to see a lefty in Montgomery looming on Saturday.
That’s no concern, because Eovaldi will get the ball. The righty’s been nothing short of stunning in his 10th big-league season, leading the league with a 2.57 FIP and 0.3 homers per nine. He’s allowing fewer hard-hit balls this year, and also has cut down on walks, so those figures come as no surprise, but that doesn’t make them any less impressive.
Eovaldi, a former Yankee, will also be delighted to see his old club once again. He’s pitched 43 2/3 innings against New York all told, and posted an impressive 3.30 ERA. He’s been dominant against the Bombers with one exception, an eight-run nightmare in last year’s shortened season.
Put bluntly, the Red Sox might struggle a bit on offense, but they shouldn’t really need many runs the way Eovaldi has been dealing.
Yankees-Red Sox Pick
We got an under on Friday on a huge total, and I think we’ll get another one on Saturday. Both pitchers have favorable matchups, and though both offenses have been good over the last week-plus, Boston’s has slowed ever so slightly and New York’s was fortunate to face some below-average pitching.
I see a considerable edge here, and with more money coming in on the under than tickets by a wide margin, I’d recommend getting in now before the number comes down, particularly if you can find it at plus money.
Pick: Under 10 (+100)
