Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | -115 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | Wednesday, 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-date MLB odds here. | |
The New York Yankees sure picked a great time to string together a winning streak, having won their seven games entering Wednesday’s contest against the Toronto Blue Jays.
New York took Game 1 of this huge series in Toronto with a commanding 6-2 victory on Tuesday night. With last night’s victory, plus the Red Sox loss, New York is now two games ahead of Boston for the top American League wild-card spot, and their magic number to clinch a postseason spot is down to three.
Boston losing was also good for Toronto, which remains just one game back of the final AL postseason place.
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Red-Hot Yanks Turn to Ace
Wednesday will be the last chance for Gerrit Cole to finalize his AL Cy Young Award resume. He is currently second in the betting odds behind Toronto lefty Robbie Ray and has put together a 16-8 campaign with a 3.08 ERA in 29 starts.
Despite looking human at times this year, probably more often than he would like, when Cole is on he is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. He is allowing just a .204 xBA and .268 xwOBA against and his 12.17 K/9 rate is the third best in the league.
After a slow start to the season, the Yankees offense has found its footing in the second half of the year. They have improved all their numbers and enter the game red hot at the plate. Over the last two weeks, New York ranks third in the league in wOBA and wRC+.
At the plate, holy smokes is Giancarlo Stanton on fire right now. He has homered in four straight games and over the last two weeks is batting .348 with a 1.206 OPS with seven home runs and 17 RBIs in 12 games.
When Stanton is hitting like this, the Yankees are nearly impossible to beat.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays acquired José Berríos at the trade deadline from Minnesota, and he has gone 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA and 3.73 xFIP in his 11 starts since joining them. His production hasn’t changed with the new team with a 12-9 record, 3.48 ERA and 2.63 xFIP on the season between both teams.
Some of Berríos’ underlying numbers are a tick higher than his actual statistics. He has a higher xERA at 4.17 and a xwOBA of .311, up from his .289 wOBA. He ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in barrel rate. Berríos does a great job of eating innings though. In 31 starts this year he has pitched into the sixth innings in 24 of them.
We all know what this Toronto offense has been all year. The Blue Jays lead the league in wOBA and sit second In wRC+. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league and have the highest average exit velocity.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to finish as the AL Most Valuable Player Award runner-up because he doesn’t pitch, but he has been the best hitter in the AL all season. He leads the AL with a .421 wOBA and 167 wRC+ and is second with 46 home runs.
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Yankees-Blue Jays Pick
The way the Yankees are playing right now, and with their ace on the mound, they are the play in this spot to keep things rolling.
In four starts against Toronto this year, Cole is 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA. In his lone start in Toronto, he allowed just one run on three hits over six innings while striking out eight.
Berríos has been pretty good on the surface, but his underlying metrics remain concerning and he has struggled with giving up hard contact. You allow a hard hit ball to Stanton or Judge right now, and it’s going to end up in Niagara Falls.
New York has the advantage in starting pitching and in the bullpen. When their offense is hitting like this, the Bronx Bombers can score with anybody.
I’ll back the Yankees at -115 and would play them to -125.
Pick: New York Yankees ML (-115)