Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito
White Sox vs. Twins Odds
| White Sox Odds | -140 |
| Twins Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Tuesday evening and via PointsBet. | |
The Chicago White Sox (25-16) enter Wednesday with the best record in the American League. On the other hand, the Minnesota Twins (14-26) sit with the worst record in the entire league. Chicago has the best run differential in the league at +72.
Minnesota picked up their first win in five meetings with the White Sox this season with a 5-4 walk-off win in the bottom of the ninth Tuesday night. The Twins were powered by three Miguel Sanó home runs accounting for four of their five runs.
White Sox Impressive Despite Giolito’s Struggles
The White Sox start is even more impressive considering their Opening Day start and ace, Lucas Giolito, has actually been their worst pitcher thus far. Giolito is the only starter with a losing record, starting 2-4 in his first eight starts with 4.97 ERA.
After posting a 12.07 K/9 rate last season, Giolito’s strikeout rate has dipped to 10.80 K/9. His HR/9 has gone from 1.00 to 1.73. Teams are batting .222 against him this season and have crushed his slider to a .308 average and .444 wOBA.
The White Sox offense has been successful in every situation this season. That is, when their manager actually says it is OK for them to try. So far this season, Chicago is second in the league in batting average, first in wOBA and first in wRC+.
Rookie Yermín Mercedes has become an instant fan favorite — to everybody except Tony La Russa and maybe a few Twins — and leads the team with 49 hits and a .368 batting average, which also leads the league.
Even without Luis Robert or José Abreu, the White Sox lineup is deep enough to continue putting up runs.
Shoemaker Has Been Shaky for Scuffling Twins
It has been a rough season for Matt Shoemaker outside of two solid starts against the lowly Detroit Tigers. In seven starts this season, Shoemaker is 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA. He allowed five runs and three home runs in his last outing against Oakland.
Shoemaker has allowed 10 home runs this season and has just 23 strikeouts and given up 12 walks. He ranks in the bottom 5% of the entire league with a 6.90 xERA and .402 xwOBA against.
The Twins’ offense hasn’t been the problem, as they rank ninth in the league in batting and sixth in wOBA and wRC+.
Minnesota is missing do-it-all outfielder Byron Buxton, who leads the team in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage this season. Sanó was able to double his home run total Tuesday night with three bombs, but has otherwise struggled.
Nelson Cruz, at the age of 40, just keeps on mashing, leading the team in hits, home runs and RBI.
White Sox-Twins Pick
Some may still be relying on preseason projections and expectations and assume the Minnesota Twins are going to figure it out and turn things around. But after a month and a half, they have been the worst team in the league. What if they just aren’t very good?
Shoemaker throws three main pitchers. He throws his slider 29.8% of the time, a splitter 28.8% and a fastball 28.3%. The White Sox crush sliders, ranking second in the league against them, as well as fifth against splitters and fourth against fastball.
Chicago is 4-1 against Minnesota this season, and was a three home run game away from being undefeated. Despite Giolito’s struggles, he should be the better pitcher in this matchup, and will have the better lineup supporting him. I like Chicago to win the series on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Chicago White Sox -140 or better.
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