Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 399-298-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Prop Bet: Eagles-Cowboys
Dalton Schultz Under 28.5 Receiving Yards
There are several factors working against Dalton Schultz tonight that make him a solid fade for this Monday Night Football matchup:
- It’s likely that Blake Jarwin’s playing time will trend up over the next few games as he’s getting closer to 100% following ACL surgery in 2020. Any playing time he sees will come at Schultz’s expense. Therefore, I would assume Schultz’s playing time will trend down going forward.
- Schultz has hauled in all eight of his targets on the season. Obviously a 100% catch rate is unsustainable, so we can expect some regression going forward there. His high catch rate has a lot to do with his laughably low aDot of 2.8, which ranks as the third-lowest among qualified wide receivers and tight ends. He may be able to haul in three or four passes and still stay under this number.
- The Eagles have done an excellent job against opposing TEs this year, keeping both Kyle Pitts (4/31/0) and George Kittle (4/17/0) in check.
- Ezekiel Elliott is also due for some positive regression in his receiving usage — I like the over on his 16.5 receiving yard prop tonight — and that extra usage will cut into Schultz’s target share.
I’m projecting him closer to 22.5 receiving yards, but my projection may be a bit high given all of the factors going against Schultz. I would bet this down to 25.5.
Pick: Dalton Schultz Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at FanDuel
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