Getty Images. Pictured: Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Saints RB Alvin Kamara
We finally have a two-game sample size to inform our roster management.
Whether you’re making start/sit decisions ahead of Thursday Night Football or looking for buy-low candidates, I’ve outlined the initial version of my Week 3 rankings into tiers to help you start making decisions.
There will be a ton of volatility until Sunday’s games kickoff, though, so be sure to check my updated rankings before making final lineup decisions. I’ll also publish an updated version of these tiers before Sunday afternoon games kickoff, but for now, let’s dive into the initial version of my Week 3 tiers below!
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
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| QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF |
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (vs. LAC)
Kyler Murray (@ JAX)
Lamar Jackson (@ DET)
The Elite QB1 Tier benefits from cupcake matchups this week — the sky is the limit for Murray and Jackson against two of the worst defenses in the league.
Tier 2
Josh Allen (vs. WAS)
It’s been a rough start for Allen, who is the QB26 through two weeks. However, there’s no reason to believe he morphed back into 2019 Josh Allen overnight, so I’m still expecting him to return top QB5 value the rest of the way.
That said, he could struggle against a stout Washington defense, creating an excellent “buy low” opportunity next week. His next three matchups are against the Texans, Chiefs and Titans.
Tier 3
Russell Wilson (@ MIN)
Jalen Hurts (@ DAL)
Hurts came crashing down to Earth with a dreadful performance against the 49ers. Despite throwing for only 190 yards and no touchdowns, Hurts managed to post the QB16 score for Week 2 thanks to his 10 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown on the ground — a reminder that Hurts’ rushing ability provides him with a high weekly floor/ceiling combo.
I expect him to bounce back with a top 10 score against the Cowboys.
Tier 4
Dak Prescott (vs. PHI)
Justin Herbert (@ KC)
Tom Brady (@ LAR)
Heading into the season, I hinted that Tom Brady could have a 2013 Peyton Manning-type season. Well, so far, Brady is on pace to shatter Manning’s single-season passing touchdown record (55). Brady faces his first tough test against the Rams. I’m treating him as a low-end QB1 option, but I can’t imagine sitting him for any QB outside of the obvious elite QB1s at this point.
Tier 5
Aaron Rodgers (@ SF)
Matthew Stafford (vs. TB)
Ryan Tannehill (vs. IND)
Daniel Jones (vs. ATL)
Kirk Cousins (vs. SEA)
Teddy Bridgewater (vs. NYJ)
There are some solid streaming options at the bottom half of this tier for Week 3. Daniel Jones is my preferred option as he offers the highest upside of potential streamers. However, Teddy Bridgewater is the best bet if you’re a heavy favorite to win your matchup this week and would rather go with a safer, high-floor option.
Tier 6
Sam Darnold (@ HOU)
Derek Carr (vs. MIA)
Matt Ryan (@ NYG)
Justin Fields (@ CLE)
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CIN)
Baker Mayfield (vs. CHI)
Trevor Lawrence (vs. ARI)
Andy Dalton’s injury opens the door for Justin Fields to make his first NFL start, and it’s likely he remains the starter once Dalton returns. However, Fields has a difficult matchup this week against Cleveland, so we need to temper our expectations. I’m viewing him as a mid-range QB2 in his NFL debut, but next week against the Lions, he should be in the low-end QB1 discussion.
Tier 7
Jared Goff (vs. BAL)
Jared Goff carries a high weekly floor, considering the Lions will continue to be involved in negative game scripts, forcing them into pass-heavy situations. The Lions rank third in early-down pass frequency after two weeks, an excellent sign for Goff long-term.
Tier 8
Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. GB)
Joe Burrow (@ PIT)
Carson Wentz (@ TEN)
Taylor Heinicke (@ BUF)
Mac Jones (vs. NO)
Jacoby Brissett (@ LV)
The low-end QB2 Tier could see one or two post a top 12 score this week, but chances are that most of these QBs will struggle to post an above-average score.
Taylor Heinicke has a tough test this week against a Bills defense that ranks second in DVOA, but he has a juicy matchup against the Falcons in Week 4. Jacoby Brissett will get the start for an injured Tua Tagovailoa, however Brissett is difficult to trust due to the Dolphins’ offensive line struggles. He’s a desperation 2QB/Superflex play only.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor HeinickeTier 9
Jameis Winston (@ NE)
Weeks 1-2 perfectly illustrate the wide range of outcomes Winston provides every week. We’ve now seen a flawless five-touchdown performance and a zero-TD, two-interception performance. Unfortunately, he has also yet to top 150 passing yards. As a result, Winston is a “sit” this week against the Patriots.
Tier 10
Zach Wilson (@ DEN)
Davis Mills (vs. CAR)
Zach Wilson faces another brutal test this week against a stout Broncos defense. Denver head coach Vic Fangio will have a game plan that forces the rookie into making mistakes.
Tier 11
Taysom Hill (@ NE)
Trey Lance (vs. GB)
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RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey (@ HOU)
CMC should feast against the Texans on Thursday Night Football.
Tier 2
Derrick Henry (vs. IND)
Dalvin Cook (vs. SEA)
Derrick Henry struggled in Week 1 but quieted all doubters with a vintage King Henry game in Week 2, erupting for 35/182/3 on the ground. Don’t look now, but Henry is averaging 4.5 receptions after two games.
Tier 3
Alvin Kamara (@ NE)
Aaron Jones (@ SF)
Nick Chubb (vs. CHI)
Alvin Kamara is off to a slow start and is the RB23 through two games, but he’s too talented to be held in check for long. I’m still treating him as an elite RB1 (for now).
Tier 4
Najee Harris (vs. CIN)
Saquon Barkley (vs. ATL)
Austin Ekeler (@ KC)
Jonathan Taylor (@ TEN)
Joe Mixon (@ PIT)
Najee Harris has gained 84.3% of his rushing yards after contact, the third-highest among 38 qualified RBs. It’s a sign that the Steelers’ poor offensive line play is forcing the rookie to earn nearly every yard on the ground, which will limit his production considerably. However, he should still see enough volume — especially in the passing game — to be viewed as a low-end RB1 most weeks.
Buy low on Jonathan Taylor now. His schedule is about to lighten, starting this week against the Titans. He’s also due for some positive TD regression after going 0-for-6 in goal-line carries. He should continue to see goal-line looks, and we would expect a RB of Taylor’s caliber to convert about 50% of those attempts into TDs going forward.
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor.Tier 5
Antonio Gibson (@ BUF)
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. PHI)
Chris Carson (@ MIN)
David Montgomery (@ CLE)
Chris Carson could only muster 31 total yards against the Titans but bailed out fantasy managers with two scores. However, I’m worried that the Seahawks may limit his receiving usage going forward, which will lower his weekly floor/ceiling combo. This situation would make him a sell-high candidate, but the market typically undervalues Carson. Therefore, I’m standing pat with my Carson shares.
Tier 6
D’Andre Swift (vs. BAL)
Damien Harris (vs. NO)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. LAC)
James Robinson (vs. ARI)
Elijah Mitchell (vs. GB)
Kenyan Drake (vs. MIA)
Darrell Henderson (vs. TB)
Miles Sanders (@ DAL)
Elijah Mitchell and Darrell Henderson are shaping up to be game-time decisions. We need to monitor their status leading up to kickoff, so check the final version of my tiers this Saturday once we know more.
Sony Michel would become a RB3/Flex option if Henderson were ruled out for Week 3. Unfortunately, it’s a brutal matchup against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense, which will limit Michel’s upside.
Trey Sermon could become the 49ers starter if he’s able to suit up and Mitchell is ruled out, but the 200 IQ play here would be to add newly-signed 49ers RB Jacques Patrick — if you have a roster spot to play around with in deeper leagues.
I always joke that the best 49ers RB is typically the one no one expects to emerge. Right now, that would be Patrick. He is a massive 6-foot-2, 226-pound back who could become the team’s goal-line back with the potential for more. There is a chance he’s forced into a significant role this week, so he’s worth a speculative add.
Tier 7
Kareem Hunt (vs. CHI)
Mike Davis (@ NYG)
Chase Edmonds (@ JAX)
Ty’Son Williams (@ DET)
Melvin Gordon (vs. NYJ)
Myles Gaskin (@ LV)
Leonard Fournette (@ LAR)
Javonte Williams (vs. NYJ)
Ty’Son Williams continues to operate as the Ravens’ lead back atop a three-way committee. He’s flashed plenty of upside while also failing to identify running lanes at times. It seems like a race for him to have a breakout game before veteran backs like Latavius Murray or Devonta Freeman see their roles increase as they learn the offense. Williams should be treated as a high-upside RB3/Flex in what should be a run-heavy game plan against the Lions.
Tier 8
Devin Singletary (vs. WAS)
Jamaal Williams (vs. BAL)
James Conner (@ JAX)
James White (vs. NO)
Tony Pollard (vs. PHI)
Cordarrelle Patterson (@ NYG)
Nyheim Hines (@ TEN)
It’s that time of year when we debate if Tony Pollard is the Cowboys’ best RB. While Pollard may be the better RB, it doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes — Jerry Jones didn’t sign Ezekiel Elliott to a six-year, $90 million contract for him to split time with Pollard. I expect Zeke to be the lead back as long as he’s healthy and Pollard to be one of the best high-upside backups to roster.
That said, Pollard can offer RB3/Flex value this week, considering that the Cowboys may have a more run-heavy game plan, especially if Amari Cooper cannot play.
Tier 9
Latavius Murray (@ DET)
Ronald Jones II (@ LAR)
Peyton Barber (vs. MIA)
David Johnson (vs. CAR)
Mark Ingram (vs. CAR)
J.D. McKissic (@ BUF)
Michael Carter (@ DEN)
Sony Michel (vs. TB)
Kenneth Gainwell (@ DAL)
A.J. Dillon (@ SF)
Zack Moss (vs. WAS)
Ty Johnson (@ DEN)
It’s hard to trust any of these RBs outside of deeper leagues. However, keep an eye on Michael Carter, who has predictably leapfrogged Tevin Coleman and seems to be in a two-way committee with Ty Johnson. It will only be a matter of time until the Jets use Carter as the lead back.
Yes, the Jets are a terrible team to invest in right now due to their offensive line, but Carter’s pass-catching skills would allow him to provide fantasy value in negative game scripts.
Tier 10
Salvon Ahmed (@ LV)
Carlos Hyde (vs. ARI)
Tony Jones Jr. (@ NE)
Malcolm Brown (@ LV)
Damien Williams (@ CLE)
Tevin Coleman (@ DEN)
Trey Sermon (vs. GB)
Darrel Williams (vs. LAC)
Jeremy McNichols (vs. IND)
Phillip Lindsay (vs. CAR)
I consider most of these RBs as high-upside bench stashes who will not be playable unless their team’s starting RB were ever to miss time.
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WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tyreek Hill (vs. LAC)
Davante Adams (@ SF)
Look for Hill to bounce back with a huge Week 3 after posting only 29 scoreless scrimmage yards last week.
Tier 2
Cooper Kupp (vs. TB)
Kupp is in a mind-meld with Matthew Stafford right now and needs to be viewed as a top-three WR moving forward.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Cooper KuppTier 3
D.K. Metcalf (@ MIN)
Tyler Lockett (@ MIN)
CeeDee Lamb (vs. PHI)
Stefon Diggs (vs. WAS)
Calvin Ridley (@ NYG)
The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection is off to a slow start, but sharp money would bet on them breaking out soon. However, it’s clear the blame probably falls on Allen’s shoulders right now.
Take a look at the catchable target rate splits:
- 2020: 166 targets, 137 catchable (82.5%)
- 2021: 22 targets, 13 catchable (59.0%)
The two-game sample size is small enough we don’t need to panic (yet), but it’s something I will be monitoring. Diggs will need Allen to throw catchable targets to provide WR1 value.
Tier 4
DeAndre Hopkins (@ JAX)
Keenan Allen (@ KC)
Justin Jefferson (vs. SEA)
Amari Cooper (vs. PHI)
Robert Woods (vs. TB)
Deebo Samuel (vs. GB)
A.J. Brown (vs. IND)
Adam Thielen (vs. SEA)
A.J. Brown is in a similar situation as Diggs — Brown’s catchable target rate has dropped from 77.5% to 58.8% in 2021. I would consider both situations to be (mostly) explained by small sample size, and we can expect both WRs to bounce back soon.
I am slightly concerned about DeAndre Hopkins’ start.
He’s managed to post the WR6 overall score after logging stat lines of 6/83/2 and 4/54/1 through the first two weeks. It’s not typical for Hopkins to rely on touchdown production to fuel his fantasy value, but that’s been the case so far this season.
Additionally, Hopkins’ target rate has plummeted to 14.9% due to ancillary targets such as Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Chase Edmonds and even Maxx Williams commanding targets. If Kyler Murray continues to spread the ball around, Hopkins will fall into the WR1/2 range, so this may be a sneaky time to sell high — just in case this trend holds.
_PromoID=[5540, 5541]
Tier 5
Chris Godwin (@ LAR)
D.J. Moore (@ HOU)
Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN)
Allen Robinson (@ CLE)
Terry McLaurin (@ BUF)
Julio Jones (vs. IND)
Diontae Johnson is shaping up to be a game-time decision after suffering an unfortunate knee injury on the final play in Week 2. He’s good enough to trust in your starting lineup, even if he’s less than 100%, but this is something we will need to monitor closely.
It’s critical to check my updated rankings on Saturday and Sunday before making any final lineup decisions.
Tier 6
Courtland Sutton (vs. NYJ)
Brandin Cooks (vs. CAR)
Tee Higgins (@ PIT)
Mike Evans (@ LAR)
Mike Williams (@ KC)
Marvin Jones (vs. ARI)
Sterling Shepard (vs. ATL)
Chase Claypool (vs. CIN)
Marquise Brown (@ DET)
Courtland Sutton erupted for nine catches and 159 yards against the Jaguars in Week 2 — his 254 air yards were 81 more than the next-highest WR. He’s the clear No. 1 WR in this offense following Jerry Jeudy’s injury and should be viewed as a WR2/3 until further notice.
Mike Williams was one of my favorite WR4/5 fliers heading into the season, and it’s already started to pay dividends. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi tried to warn us all this was coming when he said he intended to use Williams as the X receiver — aka in the Michael Thomas role — in this Sean Payton-influenced scheme.
Chase Claypool is off to a slow start and currently ranks as the WR55 in scoring. However, he’s due for a massive game soon. Last week, he ranked fourth in air yards (173) but only secured three of his nine targets for 70 yards. I estimated that he would typically come away with about 121 yards based on his underlying usage. He’s a sneaky buy-low candidate right now.
Tier 7
JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. CIN)
Ja’Marr Chase (@ PIT)
Rondale Moore (@ JAX)
Laviska Shenault (vs. ARI)
Devonta Smith (@ DAL)
Kenny Golladay (vs. ATL)
Jakobi Meyers (vs. NO)
Tyler Boyd (@ PIT)
Antonio Brown (@ LAR)
Cole Beasley (vs. WAS)
Darnell Mooney (@ CLE)
D.J. Chark (vs. ARI)
Antonio Brown was placed on the COVID list on Wednesday after testing positive for the virus. If he misses Week 3, his absence would have a ripple effect for Tampa Bay players, which I will address when the time comes. In the meantime, you can stash Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson as speculative adds. My gut tells me that Johnson would be the likely AB replacement and offer potential WR4/Flex value.
Rondale Moore was ready for takeoff last week, and he didn’t let me down. As predicted, he is now in the WR3 discussion this week.
I’m expecting Darnell Mooney to be the next WR to takeoff — I explain why it’s time to buy low on him here.
Tier 8
Robby Anderson (@ HOU)
Mecole Hardman (vs. LAC)
Sammy Watkins (@ DET)
Michael Pittman Jr. (@ TEN)*
- * = High floor/low ceiling: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large favorite this week
- ** = High ceiling/low floor: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large underdog this week
Tier 9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ SF)
Jaylen Waddle (@ LV)
Corey Davis (@ DEN)*
Nelson Agholor (vs. NO)
Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. CHI)
Jalen Reagor (@ DAL)**
K.J. Osborn (vs. SEA)*
Christian Kirk (@ JAX)
Will Fuller (@ LV)
DeVante Parker (@ LV)
- * = High floor/low ceiling: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large favorite this week
- ** = High ceiling/low floor: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large underdog this week
Tier 10
A.J. Green (@ JAX)
Tim Patrick (vs. NYJ)
Henry Ruggs (vs. MIA)
Bryan Edwards (vs. MIA)
Marquez Callaway (@ NE)
K.J. Hamler (vs. NYJ)
Emmanuel Sanders (vs. WAS)
Van Jefferson (vs. TB)
Quintez Cephus (vs. BAL)
Terrace Marshall (@ HOU)
Zach Pascal (@ TEN)
Brandon Aiyuk (vs. GB)
Hunter Renfrow (vs. MIA)
Darius Slayton (vs. ATL)
- * = High floor/low ceiling: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large favorite this week
- ** = High ceiling/low floor: Lean toward these types of players if you’re a large underdog this week
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TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (vs. LAC)
Travis Kelce will be turning 32 in a couple of weeks, but is showing no signs of slowing down:
TRAVIS KELCE ARE YOU FOR REAL?
📺: #KCvsBAL on NBC
📱: https://t.co/SsXyNx0bwQ pic.twitter.com/LyX27ajHwF— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2021
Tier 2
Darren Waller (vs. MIA)
Waller “struggled” last week and posted a 5/65/0 line. It’s even more remarkable considering Derek Carr threw for 382 yards. Waller carries a massive weekly floor/ceiling combo, which is why I viewed him as the clear No. 2 TE over George Kittle.
Tier 3
George Kittle (vs. GB)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. BAL)
I dubbed T.J. Hockenson as “the most valuable player” in my 2021 draft strategy, and it still amazes me that he was going in the sixth round of most drafts.
Tier 4
Kyle Pitts (@ NYG)
Mark Andrews (@ DET)
Tyler Higbee (vs. TB)
Noah Fant (vs. NYJ)
Tyler Higbee flopped right after I highlighted him as a buy-low candidate, saying he should be an elite TE1 the rest of the way. So either I misread his upside completely, or I was a week or two early. Either way, I’m still buying in on Higbee being a stud this season. Opposing defenses will need to adjust to Cooper Kupp being a target hog in this offense and start putting extra resources in an attempt to slow him down.
Higbee should have plenty of big games on the horizon.
Tier 5
Rob Gronkowski (@ LAR)
Logan Thomas (@ BUF)
I overlooked Gronk heading into 2021 because I thought the Bucs might limit his usage to keep him fresh for an entire 17-game season. However, that doesn’t appear to be the case, as he seems to have found the Fountain of Youth. Gronk obviously won’t be able to score two TDs every game, but I do expect Tom Brady to make a run at Peyton Manning’s single-season TD record (55) this season, so Gronk should provide plenty of TD upside each week.
Leon Halip/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski, Chris GodwinTier 6
Robert Tonyan Jr. (@ SF)
Jared Cook (@ KC)
Austin Hooper (vs. CHI)
Jack Doyle (@ TEN)
Dallas Goedert (@ DAL)
Dawson Knox (vs. WAS)
Jonnu Smith (vs. NO)
Hunter Henry (vs. NO)
David Njoku (vs. CHI)
Jared Cook is my favorite streaming option at TE this week. We should see him break out with a big game against the Chiefs. He would have finished as a top-five TE last week if his go-ahead TD wasn’t called back due to a questionable penalty call.
The Bills are opting to run more 11 formations this season (as opposed to 10, 4-WRs), which has resulted in Dawson Knox seeing an uptick in playing time. He ran a route on 78% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks last week. It could have been game plan specific or something that deserves our attention. Either way, Knox would have massive upside in this offense if he ends up settling in the 60-70% routes run range each week.
All three Browns tight ends could step up this week if Odell Beckham Jr. is unable to suit up. They’re already going to be without Jarvis Landry for at least a few games, making their WR depth chart incredibly thin. Harrison Bryant was lining up out wide last week, so even he could be in play if Odell sits.
Tier 7
Juwan Johnson (@ NE)
Mike Gesicki (@ LV)
Gerald Everett (@ MIN)
Evan Engram (vs. ATL)
Cole Kmet (@ CLE)
Tyler Conklin (vs. SEA)
Dalton Schultz (vs. PHI)
Albert Okwuegbunam (vs. NYJ)
Blake Jarwin (vs. PHI)
Tier 8
Maxx Williams (@ JAX)
Adam Trautman (@ NE)
Zach Ertz (@ DAL)
Dan Arnold (@ HOU)
C.J. Uzomah (@ PIT)
Anthony Firkser (vs. IND)
Pharaoh Brown (vs. CAR)
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KICKERS
Tier 1
Harrison Butker (vs. LAC)
Justin Tucker (@ DET)
Matt Prater (@ JAX)
Tier 2
Jason Myers (@ MIN)
Graham Gano (vs. ATL)
Ryan Succop (@ LAR)
Matt Gay (vs. TB)
Brandon McManus (vs. NYJ)
Greg Zuerlein (vs. PHI)
Tier 3
Tyler Bass (vs. WAS)
Robbie Gould (vs. GB)
Zane Gonzalez (@ HOU)
Younghoe Koo (@ NYG)
Daniel Carlson (vs. MIA)
Randy Bullock (vs. IND)
Greg Joseph (vs. SEA)
Josh Lambo (vs. ARI)
Tristan Vizcaino (@ KC)
Chase McLaughlin (vs. CHI)
Chris Boswell (vs. CIN)
Jason Sanders (@ LV)
Austin Seibert (vs. BAL)
Jake Elliott (@ DAL)
Nick Folk (vs. NO)
Tier 4
Mason Crosby (@ SF)
Rodrigo Blankenship (@ TEN)
Evan McPherson (@ PIT)
Cairo Santos (@ CLE)
Joey Slye (vs. CAR)
Dustin Hopkins (@ BUF)
Tier 5
Aldrick Rosas (@ NE)
Matt Ammendola (@ DEN)
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DEFENSES
Tier 1
Denver Broncos (vs. NYJ)
Buffalo Bills (vs. WAS)
Carolina Panthers (@ HOU)
Tier 2
New England Patriots (vs. NO)
Cleveland Browns (vs. CHI)
Baltimore Ravens (@ DET)
Arizona Cardinals (@ JAX)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN)
Tier 3
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. MIA)
New York Giants (vs. ATL)
Tennessee Titans (vs. IND)
Tier 4
Dallas Cowboys (vs. PHI)
New Orleans Saints (@ NE)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LAC)
Washington Football Team (@ BUF)
Houston Texans (vs. CAR)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ LAR)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. GB)
Atlanta Falcons (@ NYG)
Tier 5
Miami Dolphins (@ LV)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. TB)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ PIT)
Green Bay Packers (@ SF)
Seattle Seahawks (@ MIN)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ DAL)
Tier 6
New York Jets (@ DEN)
Chicago Bears (@ CLE)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. SEA)
Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. ARI)
Detroit Lions (vs. BAL)
Tier 7
Los Angeles Chargers (@ KC)
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