Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Manger David Moyes of West Ham United.
West Brom vs. West Ham Odds
| West Brom Odds | +440 |
| West Ham Odds | -175 |
| Draw | +335 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-162 / +128) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
West Ham United looks to secure a Europa League spot Wednesday when it faces relegated West Bromwich Albion in Premier League action at The Hawthorns.
The host Baggies’ hopes of surviving relegation are over and they’ll be heading back down to the Championship after only one season in England’s top flight. They’ve been dreadful on home soil this season, picking up only 15 of a possible 54 points. This match will be more about pride for West Brom before it prepares to play in England’s second division.
On the other side, West Ham’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League ended when it drew with Brighton & Hove Albion this past Saturday. However, the Hammers have still had a fantastic season and can secure a Europa League spot with three points against West Brom.
Trip to Championship Deserved for West Brom
The Baggies have been in a bad run of form over the past month, picking up only two points in their last five matches. West Brom has already secured relegation and, as mean as it sounds, deserves it.
It’s hard to overstate how bad the Baggies have been this season. The biggest issue is that they’ve failed to create any chances in front of net. For the season, they’re averaging only 0.91 expected goals per match, which is the second-lowest rate in the league.
Things maybe wouldn’t be so bad for West Brom if its issues were reserved for one side of the pitch. However, that isn’t the case, as the club has allowed the most xG in the league at 1.89 xG per match. So, I have a hard time seeing how it’s going to stop West Ham’s high-powered offense.
Offense Has Been Carrying West Ham This Season
The Hammers’ offense has been destroying opposing defenses for more than two months now. In its last 13 matches, West Ham has scored 25 goals and averaged 1.62 xG per match. Jesse Lingard is perhaps the signing of the season, because the Manchester United loanee has scored nine goals and dished out three assists in only 14 appearances.
However, the defense has been a bit shaky recently, as the Hammers have allowed 1.65 xG per game over their last 10 outings. A stellar offense with a shaky defense has led to a ton of high-scoring matches, as 61 percent of West Ham’s fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals. A lot of those tilts have happened away from home as well, as 2.89 total xG are created on average on the road.
West Ham needs three points to secure a Europa League spot for the first time in the club’s history, so I think we will see it play very aggressive against a very poor West Brom defense that has nothing to play for at this point.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think West Ham’s offense is going to run rampant all over West Brom. However, I also believe the -167 price is a tad too steep to pay, so instead I am going to target the Hammers’ team total.
Since I have the West Ham projected for 1.94 goals, I think there is some value on West Ham’s team total over 2.5 goals at +195 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick in this game.
Pick: West Ham Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+195)
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