Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Grealish.
Spurs vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Spurs Odds | -195 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +480 |
| Draw | +370 |
| Over/Under | 3 (-122 / +102) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Tottenham looks to secure a Europa League spot for next season when it hosts Aston Villa at White Hart Lane Wednesday.
Tottenham’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are pretty much over, but it can secure a Europa League spot with a win on Wednesday. However, the biggest storyline surrounding Spurs right now is off the pitch, as star striker Harry Kane has told the club he wants to leave in the summer.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
Harry Kane has told Tottenham he wants to leave this summer pic.twitter.com/u3PDDg5a2h
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) May 17, 2021
With all of the distractions going on off the field, it will be interesting to see if Tottenham can focus on the task at hand and secure Europa League qualification.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, has shown a ton of improvement this season, but it’s seen a dip in form over the past three months as it’s been without captain and best player Jack Grealish. However, all that could change soon, as Grealish should be fit enough to start on Wednesday.
Aston Villa blew a 2-1 lead in the second half against Crystal Palace on Sunday, so we’ll see if it can rebound from that disappointment.
Spurs Continue to Play Well at Home
Tottenham is vastly overrated, both offensively and defensively.
Spurs have scored 63 goals on the season but created only 53.93 xG so far. As for its defense, the club has given up 41 goals but allowed opponents to create 49.09 xG overall.
Spurs have had most of their success come at White Hart Lane, where they’ve secured 33 of a possible 54 points, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League. However, they only have a +9.20 xGD at home, which is fifth-best in the league.
Tottenham is also almost entirely reliant on Kane and Son Heung-min to create all of its scoring chances. The duo has combined for 41 of Spurs’ 62 goals in the Premier League this season. However, they’ve been a bit fortunate because they’ve created only 32.24 expected goals on the season.
Grealish Changes Everything for Villans
The Villans’ bad stretch without Grealish over the past three months really was disappointing after the first half of the season was so promising. However, with Grealish in the lineup, they are a completely different team.
With Grealish, Aston Villa boasts one of the best attacks in the Premier League, as it averages 1.74 xG per match. However, with Grealish on the sidelines, the Villans average only 1.09 xG per match.
Aston Villa’s defense has also been much improved from last season, allowing only 1.34 xG per match.
Aston Villa lost the previous meeting against Tottenham, 2-0, at home, but it was without Grealish for that match, so I expect Wednesday to be a completely different story.
Aston Villa doesn’t have much to play for other than pride, but I expect Dean Smith’s side to look to exact some revenge on Wednesday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though Aston Villa has nothing to play for in this match, I still think it’s undervalued.
Tottenham’s offense has been completely overrated all season long, and with Grealish back in the lineup, Aston Villa should give Spurs all they can handle.
Since I have Tottenham projected as only a +110 favorite, I am going to back Aston Villa’s spread of +1 at +102 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Aston Villa +1 (+102)
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