Peter Powell/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Pep Guardiola of Manchester City.
Manchester City vs. Southampton Odds
| Manchester City Odds | -500 |
| Southampton Odds | +1300 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Manchester City will be doing something Wednesday it hasn’t done in close to four months. The European power will be entering a match coming off a loss.
The Cityzens, who had their 28-game unbeaten run halted in a 2-0 defeat to Manchester United on Sunday in a meeting of the Premier League’s top clubs, will look to take their frustrations out on Southampton at Etihad Stadium.
In contrast, the Saints snapped a nine-match winless skid with a 2-0 road victory over last-place Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. Southampton had been flirting with disaster as of late, continuing its slide down the table in England’s top flight. However, the Saints are now seven points clear of the drop zone.
Southampton will be looking for a little redemption, having been dealt a brutal 9-0 shutout loss against Manchester City the last time these sides met.
Manchester City
Manager Pep Guardiola probably knew his lads’ unbelievable run would come to an end at some point this campaign, but I’m pretty sure he didn’t anticipate or want it to occur against their storied rivals in the latest Manchester derby.
Manchester City was on its heels right out of the gate, falling behind just two minutes into the showdown via a Bruno Fernandes penalty. The Cityzens looked out of sync, earning few quality scoring chances against the Red Devils.
With a weekend bout against upstart Fulham and next week’s Champions League match against Borussia Mönchengladbach on the horizon, I expect Guardiola to make some personnel adjustments. Regulars like Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne could get the night off, which would give others some quality minutes against Southampton.
Statistically, Manchester City leads all teams in England’s top flight when it comes to advanced metrics. The Cityzens sit on an insane 53.1 expected goals and 21.6 xGA, resulting in an absurd +31.5 xGDiff and +1.12 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Southampton
The Saints have to be breathing a little easier after their win over the Blades. Whispers around St Mary’s Stadium of a potential relegation fight surely had to be heard prior to the road tilt, but they’ve since been quelled for the time being following that three-point effort.
Despite the much-needed win, the Saints suffered a key loss when Danny Ings — the team’s leading scorer with eight goals — picked up an early knock against Sheffield United and could miss the rest of the month.
This has to be a major cause for concern for the club, which desperately wants to put in a better effort after the previous debacle against the Cityzens.
When comparing numbers with Manchester City, Southampton is well behind its opponent in all categories. The Saints sit on 26.7 xG and 34.8 xGA, generating a disappointing -8.1 xGDiff and -0.30 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This midweek games coming off weekend contests are tough for all clubs. Fatigue doesn’t have a type and could care less where you sit in the standings.
I fully expect this to be rough slog for 90 minutes, with quality chances at goal less plentiful (at least for the host) in this latest meeting.
That said, I am backing the total to stay under the alternative number of 3.25 goals. As I mentioned earlier, the short turnaround and congested schedule means there will likely be wholesale changes, specifically on Manchester City’s side of the pitch, and that should curtail prime scoring opportunities.
You have to think Guardiola’s side will also be keen to pick up a clean sheet after that uncharacteristic — and sometimes sloppy — performance in the Manchester United defeat.
If Sergio Aguero gets the nod up top for the Cityzens, I will play him to score anytime. Aguero didn’t see the field in the derby, so expect a energized effort from the Argentina international as he tries to regain his spot in the lineup.
Picks: Total Under 3.25 Goals (-124) | Sergio Aguero To Score Anytime — Yes (+100)
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