Wednesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fulham vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Dec. 16)

Fulham vs. Brighton Odds

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Clubs already in the Premier League relegation battle go at it Wednesday when Fulham entertains Brighton & Hove Albion at Craven Cottage.

Only two points separate these struggling sides, with the visiting Seagulls sitting in 16th place on the table and the Cottagers just two back in 18th place in England’s top flight.

Brighton enters this match off back-to-back defeats, with recent coming via its 3-0 shutout loss at Leicester City. As for the host, Fulham nearly snagged all three points in its most-recent tilt with defending champion Liverpool, but settled for a 1-1 draw.

A win from either team would go a long way in their respective fights to get away from the bottom three on the table.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be in store for this contest.

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Fulham

For as bad as the Cottagers have been the majority of the season, things are starting to look up for the outfit.

Fulham secured four points in it last three matches, which came against heavy hitters Leicester City, Manchester City and Liverpool. The Cottagers suffered a 2-0 loss to the Cityzens, but secured a stunning, 3-1 win over the Foxes for just the second victory of their campaign.

Bobby Reid has been the driving force up top, recording a team-best four goals this season. Reid’s goal opened the scoring in the stalemate against Liverpool before Mo Salah equalized from the spot deep in the second half.

Fulham has accumulated some truly brutal advanced metrics over the course of its 12 matches. The Cottagers sit on 14.3 expected goals for and downright awful 19.5 expected goals against, resulting a disappointing -5.2 xGDiff and -0.44 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

In context, it isn’t as bad. The Cottagers are second best in expected goal differential when matched against the four other teams in the relegation mix, with Brighton the only club in front of them.

Brighton

Describing the Seagulls’ season thus far as a rollercoaster ride would be the definition of an understatement.

Manager Graham Potter and his club might actually the best 16th place in league history at this point of the campaign, having suffered an array of misfortunes through their first 12 contests.

Brighton was downright miserable in that Leicester City defeat, but should have gotten at least a point in the 2-1 loss to Southampton two games back. Prior to that, the Seagulls bagged five points in three games, highlighted by a draw with Liverpool and 2-1 win over Aston Villa.

When comparing Brighton’s overall data in similar categories, it would probably surprise you it doesn’t posses figures normally connected to a team sitting in 16th place on the table.

The Seagulls have on a respectable 16.7 xGs and impressive 12.7 expected goals against, resulting in an +4.0 xGDiff and +0.33 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

How good are these Brighton numbers? The club has a better xGDiff than four teams in the top 10, including Southampton (fourth place) and Manchester United in eighth place. The Seagulls are also the lone side in the bottom half of the table with a positive xGDiff as well.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

This really is a difficult match to handicap. You have clubs desperate for a win, whose records are worse than their actual performances this season.

That said, I am going to back Fulham via a Draw No Bet wager at a nice price. The Cottagers nearly pulled off that shocking win against Liverpool on the weekend, so things are trending upward.

In contrast, Brighton looked out of sync and like a team destined to be in the relegation fight the rest of the season if things don’t do a 180-degree turn in the immediate future. Add in the fact the Seagulls have just three wins in their last 18 league games in London, and I like my chances with Fulham in this spot.

I will also play the total to go under the number. Three of Fulham’s last four matches have finished with fewer than three goals, which has me believing we will see a similar outcome in this showdown.

There is way too much on the line for these sides and dropping all three points for either would be devastating at this point in the season. Expect a tight affair throughout, with the defense being the focus at Craven Cottage.

Picks: Fulham — Draw No Bet (+102) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-127)