Wednesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Burnley vs. Leicester City (March 3)

Burnley vs. Leicester City Odds

Burnley and Leicester City look to rebound from losses over the weekend when they meet Wednesday for a Premier League match at Turf Moor.

It’s been a difficult season for the Clarets, who once again find themselves in a relegation battle. They’re on a bad run at the moment as well, winning just one of their last seven matches. The Foxes defeated Burnley, 4-2, back in September, so the hosts will be looking for some revenge.

Leicester City was on a good run in England’s top flight before Arsenal came and stomped it with a 3-1 rout this past weekend. Overall, the Foxes have won three of their last five matches and find themselves  comfortably in third place.

However, if last year was any indication of what could be in store, Leicester City can’t rest on its laurels or it could lose a coveted Champions League spot in an instant. A win over a lowly side like Burnley could be just the ticket for manager Brendan Rodgers’ men to avoid a dip in form.

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Burnley

The Clarets’ defense was gashed Sunday, as Tottenham Hotspur put four goals past it en route to one of their worst losses of the season. Before that, Burnley was a defensive wall, allowing only two goals in their previous four matches.

Burnley plays a much different game than the rest of the league, as it prefers to focus on playing solid defense, rather than trying to go forward in attack.

The Clarets utilize a 4-4-2 formation, which allows them to keep eight guys behind the ball and clog up the middle of the pitch, forcing opponents to play the ball in from out wide. That will come in handy facing Jamie Vardy since he is the Foxes’ only goal-scoring threat at the moment.

However,  the results have been mixed this season, as Burnley is allowing 1.43 expected goals per match, while playing out of that formation.

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Playing in a 4-4-2 has its drawbacks, as most teams struggle with build-up play going forward in the attack since eight guys are usually positioned deep in their own defensive end. The proof is in the numbers for Burnley, as it’s creating just 0.86 xG per match.

In addition, Ashley Barnes — one of their main strikers — is going to miss this match due to injury, so it’s going to be difficult for the Clarets to create a lot of high-quality chances.

Leicester City

The Foxes are really lucky to be sitting in a Champions League spot in the table. Based on Understat’s expected-points metric, Leicester City should be three spots lower in the standings. It has been too reliant on two things: penalties and the 34-year-old Vardy.

Leicester City has been awarded nine penalties, which is tied for the most in the league this season. It’s also struggling to create chances from open play, with only 1.06 xG per match. 

In addition to that, Vardy has been the Foxes’ only scoring threat. He’s involved in 40 percent of their goals, averaging a ridiculous 0.73 xG per 90 minutes.

Another huge issue is Leicester is going through some injury issues at the moment.

Right midfielder Ayoze Perez, left back James Justin, left-midfielder Harvey Barnes (LM) and attacking midfielder Dennis Praet are going to miss this match, while attacking midfielder James Maddison and central defender Johnny Evans are questionable.

So, I think Leicester City is going to have some difficulty given it will be so short-handed at Turf Moor.

Betting Analysis & Picks

I think this is going to be a really tight affair, with both teams playing cautious. Leicester City’s injury woes clearly had an effect against Arsenal, so I don’t think all three points for the visitor is a forgone conclusion.

Honestly, I could easily see this match ending in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. Therefore, I am going to back the total under 2.5 goals at -137 odds at my top play.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-137)

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