Mike Hewitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Yves Bissouma of Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton vs. Fulham Odds
| Brighton Odds | +106 |
| Fulham Odds | +270 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+112/-139) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
Odds updated as of Monday afternoon and via DraftKings.
Brighton hosts Fulham Wednesday in ultra-important match that will no doubt play a part in the relegation battle.
The Seagulls’ season has been filled with heartbreaking disappointment, but they got their first win in more than two months against Leeds in their most recent Premier League match. The biggest problem for Brighton this season is they cannot stop drawing with teams. The Seagulls have eight draws in their first 19 matches. Brighton’s underlying metrics show they are a much better side than their results have shown. So, can they get back-to-back wins for the first time this season against Fulham?
Scott Parker’s squad is in the middle of a terrible run of form, as they haven’t won a Premier League match in almost two months. The Cottagers are currently in the relegation zone and five points off of their opponents. So Fulham desperately needs this match if they want any chance of staying in the top flight of English soccer.
Brighton
The Seagulls may be the most underrated club in all of Europe. Brighton currently sits with a -7 goal differential, but their expected goal differential is +3.24, which is 10th best in the Premier League.
Brighton is also way overdue for all three points at the American Express Stadium. In their nine home matches they have a +7.3 xGD and have won the expected goals battle in seven of those matches. In fact, Brighton should have 17.82 points based on understat.com’s xPoints metric, while they’ve only managed five points so far this season.
The Seagulls were held to only 0.71 xG in a 0-0 draw with Fulham a little more than a month ago. However, since then they’ve averaged 1.53 xGF per match, so they should have no trouble breaking down Fulham’s defense.
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Fulham
The Cottagers have really struggled in front of net over their eight-match skid, averaging only 1.04 xGF per match. That has been the main issue for Parker’s side all season long as they’ve struggled to create chances close on net, as they have a Premier League low six shots inside the six-yard box. On the flip side, they’ve allowed 25 shots inside the six-yard box, which is the most in the Premier League.
Fulham allows a ton of chances from all over the pitch, as they’re in the bottom-five of the Premier League in expected goals allowed at 1.65 per match. Most of those issues on defense have come away from home, where they’re allowing 1.86 xG per match and have allowed 9.11 xG in their last four away matches.
Parker’s side usually plays out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is the most popular formation in modern football. It provides teams with multiple attacking options and encourages creativity from their attacking players. However, the downside — which has been seen far too often with Fulham this season — is it puts a lot of pressure on the defense and puts the fullbacks in a lot of 1-on-1 situations. So, it’s easy to see why the Cottagers are allowing 1.50 xG when playing out of that formation.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The Seagulls are well overdue for a win at the American Express Stadium and I think they will be able to grab all three points against Fulham’s shaky defense. I have Brighton projected at -145 and think there is plenty of value on the Seagulls at +106 (DraftKings) to get their first home win of the season.
Pick: Brighton +106