Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: bayern Munich star Serge Gnabry scores a goal during a recent match.
Two more European soccer powers will take another step forward in their respective quests for Champions League glory Wednesday, with the final Round of 16 matches closing out the slate.
Defending champion Bayern Munich looks to put away Serie A side Lazio, with Premier League standout Chelsea hoping to fend off Spanish juggernaut Atlético Madrid in their showdown.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have pinpointed four picks entering these games, with the aggregate winners advancing to the quarterfinal round.
Let’s take a look at their detailed analysis and top selections.
| MATCH | ANALYST | THE PICK |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich vs. Lazio | BJ Cunningham | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120) |
| Bayern Munich vs. Lazio | Jeremy Pond | Bayern Munich -1.5 (-117) |
| Chelsea vs. Atlético Madrid | Anthony Dabbundo | Chelsea ML (+128) |
| Chelsea vs. Atlético Madrid | Kieran Darcy | Atlético Madrid ML (+235) |
Odds updated as of Tuesday evening via DraftKings.
BJ Cunningham: Bayern Munich vs. Lazio — Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120)
- Odds available at DraftKings
This match is going to end up being completely meaningless since Bayern Munich gained a 4-1 advantage in the first leg in Rome.
Offensively, Lazio has not been that impressive in Serie A, averaging only 1.13 expected goals per match from open play. They’ve also struggled versus a lot of the top teams in Italy this season, going 1-2-4 versus the current top four in the table.
The underlying metrics for Lazio also show a team destined for a mid-table finish in the Italian top flight, due to the fact it only has a +3.33 expected-goal differential for the season.
Lazio typically plays out of 3-5-2 formation, which can be a dream come true for most managers because it allows teams to put two strikers on the field, while still fielding three central midfielders who can outnumber or match the opponents by getting width from two wingbacks.
However, Lazio hasn’t had much success playing the 3-5-2 this season, with a +4.13 xGD in more than 2,000 minutes playing out of the formation. So, I think the club is once again going to have trouble breaking down Bayern Munich.
During the group stage, the Bavarians had already won the group, but still had a match versus Atlético Madrid. In that game, they played ultra defensive and basically went for a draw, which they achieved.
I could see a similar scenario where manager Hans Flick sets Bayern Munich up very defensively and they try to just play for a stalemate.
I only have 3.03 goals projected for this match, so I think there is a little bit of value on the total under 3.5 goals at -104 odds for this match..
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Jeremy Pond: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-117) vs. Lazio
- Odds available at DraftKings
Bayern Munich did what it needed to do in the opening leg of this tie, cruising to a 4-1 road victory against its Serie A opponent.
Yes, I’m well aware Lazio has a chance to pull of its version of Barcelona’s “La Remontada” on German soil. However, I’m also cognizant of the fact the chances of a repeat of that 2017 Blaugrana shocker happening is slim to none.
What’s scary for me from that first affair is the fact Bayern Munich blitzed the Lazio defense for four goals, but did it by holding a decent — but not crazy — 2.6-1.6 xG advantage in the contest. Bottom line, the White and Sky Blues hung tough with the Bavarians and were still throttled at Stadio Olimpico.
For those reasons, I am following the same path I did Tuesday when I played Manchester City to thump Borussia Mönchengladbach (which it did) and backing Bayern Munich via the alternative line of -1.5 goals at fair -117 odds.
The Bavarians have been on fire since that triumph in Rome four games back, scoring a whopping 12 goals in their last three Bundesliga matches and winning by at least two goals in each contest.
Jump on the Bayern Munich train in this spot and enjoy another master class from the defending champions.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Chelsea ML (+128) vs. Atlético Madrid
- Odds available at DraftKings
The onus will be on Atlético Madrid to find at least one goal — and maybe two — to get through in this tie, but Chelsea is quietly putting up stellar numbers and has become one of the world’s four best teams based on my numbers.
My projections make Chelsea -100 favorites to win this match outright, which has me happy to take the value at +128 as my top pick. There’s a concern they could play for a scoreless draw here, but one Blues’ goal would be enough to all but secure their spot in the final eight of the competition.
Atlético Madrid might be leading La Liga right now, but how good is the Spanish top flight? Barcelona was bounced out of this tournament pretty easily by Paris Saint-Germain, and it had been wrecking La Liga teams.
Real Sociedad has better underlying numbers than Atletico in Spain, but Sociedad was crushed by Manchester United in the Europa League.
For all of Borussia Dortmund’s issues in the Bundesliga, the German side dispatched Sevilla pretty handily over the course of two legs.
I’ve been betting against the Spanish teams and backing English clubs in the knockouts, because England appears to be much better than the rest of the continent right now.
That said, the market is simply showing too much residual strength to La Liga at this time.
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Kieran Darcy: Atlético Madrid ML (+235) vs. Chelsea
- Odds available at DraftKings
Olivier Giroud’s bicycle kick was the difference in a very tight first match between these two clubs on neutral ground in Bucharest — Chelsea outshot Atletico 11-6, but only topped them 0.6 to 0.5 in terms of xG.
Both teams have two wins and two draws since their previous engagement. Chelsea has only scored a combined three goals in those four games, but kept four clean sheets. Atlético Madrid has scored five goals, but conceded just two goals. And both are coming off scoreless draws this past Saturday as well.
That said, this figures to be low-scoring, but you’re going to pay a heavy price for under 2.5 goals. Instead, I’d take a chance on Atlético Madrid at better than 2/1 odds.
Luis Suarez is second in La Liga with 18 goals, behind only Lionel Messi’s 21 goals at Barcelona. Chelsea’s leading scorers in the Premier League are Jorginho and Tammy Abraham, each with six goals. Of note is the fact Jorginho’s goals have all come via penalties.
When in doubt, give me the team with the elite scorer in form. A 1-0 Atlético Madrid victory would send it into extra time, but you’d already be a winner.
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