Mike Hewitt/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Jorginho and Thomas Tuchel.
Chelsea vs. Atlético Madrid Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +130 |
| Atlético Madrid Odds | +235 |
| Draw | +215 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+142 / -180) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via PointsBet | |
The Champions League Round of 16 concludes on Wednesday as Atlético Madrid travel to London to take on Chelsea trailing 1-0 on aggregate.
The first leg played out how most first legs involving Atlético do, with the hosts looking to prevent the away goal and keep the game as low scoring as possible.
Instead, Olivier Giroud’s wonder goal gave the Blues a significant edge heading into the second leg at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea
The first leg didn’t exactly play out tactically as I expected. The Blues didn’t have nearly as much control as I thought they would. Atlético was also much more ineffective on the counter than I thought they would be. Outside of Thomas Lemar’s early chance in the match, Atléti only managed 0.23 xG on four shots.
The Blues’ current defensive run under manager Thomas Tuchel is among the best in Premier League history. In 12 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have allowed two goals under Tuchel, and one was a fluky own goal. In the league and Champions League, the Chelsea defense has allowed more than 0.5 xGA once in their last 11 matches in either the Premier League or Champions League.
On the other end of the pitch, the Blues’ attack had a few great games against Everton and Newcastle, but it’s hardly firing on all cylinders for a few reasons. Tuchel isn’t playing many creative attacking midfielders to make this attack click, and he has been rotating the squad almost every match, which means they’re struggling to build any continuity.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid may be atop La Liga right now, but how good is La Liga?
Barcelona were bounced out of the Champions League pretty easily by PSG, and Lionel Messi & Co. had been on a tear in the league. Real Sociedad has better underlying numbers than Atlético in Spain, and they were crushed by Manchester United in the Europa League. For all of Dortmund’s issues in the Bundesliga, they dispatched Sevilla pretty handily over two legs. Real Madrid advanced in the Champions League against Atalanta, although that was more of a matter of Atalanta imploding than Madrid outplaying them.
The Spanish league is as down as it has been in years, and Atlético are winning it with pretty mediocre underlying numbers. The regression has been coming for Diego Simeone’s men, and their home performance in the home leg of this tie was far from inspiring. Luis Suárez has had a resurgent season for Atlético, but he’s also inhibiting their counter attack with his lacking pace.
While Chelsea has an expected goal difference (xGD) of +0.74 per 90 minutes in the Premier League, a much better league than La Liga, Atlético is only +0.50 in Spain, according to FBref.com.
Suárez’s run of incredible finishing masked otherwise mediocre underlying numbers domestically for Atlético. No team in Europe’s top five leagues is outperforming their xGD by more than Atlético, and I’m expecting the regression to continue here.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The onus will be on Atlético to find at least one goal, maybe more, to get through in this tie. But Chelsea is quietly putting up stellar numbers and is one of the four best teams in the world right now, based on my numbers.
Given that and how much higher I am on the Premier League than La Liga, I will continue to back the English side here.
My projections make Chelsea -100 to win this match and thus I’ll take the value at +130. There is concern that the Blues could play it safe and go for a 0-0 draw here, but one goal would be enough to all but secure their spot in the quarterfinals.
Chelsea have a real chance to win this competition if they can avoid a matchup with Manchester City in the final eight.
For a live betting strategy, look to live bet an under immediately after an opening goal if it’s before the 20th minute.
Pick: Chelsea +130
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