USC vs. UCLA Odds

The Pac-12 regular season title is on the line Saturday when intra-city rivals meet at Pauley Pavilion.

USC completely blew out Stanford on Thursday to end the Trojans’ two-game losing streak. The Trojans are in the middle of one of the program’s best seasons in the past decade and are tied atop the Pac-12 standings with Oregon, meaning Saturday’s game against UCLA will be for the regular season conference title. USC destroyed UCLA 66-48 in the first meeting, so it will be looking for a similar performance on Saturday.

UCLA is also potentially playing for a Pac-12 regular season title, as they are a half game behind USC and Oregon in the standings. The Bruins fell apart late against Oregon on Thursday, so they need to put that behind them if they want to hang with their rivals and keep their undefeated record at Pauley Pavilion this season in tact.

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When USC has the ball

The Trojans destroy their opponents in the paint.  USC is the tallest team in the country, and it has one the best big men in the country in the form of five-star freshman Evan Mobley. Mobley himself has carried the Trojans in the scoring department, averaging 16.2 points per game. The Trojans shoot over 51% from inside the arc and over 61% on shot attempts at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.

USC also grabs offensive rebounds better than anybody in the conference and destroyed Stanford on the boards Thursday, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds. The way to beat Mick Cronin’s defense is not inside, however, it’s from behind the arc.

John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Evan Mobley.

UCLA’s defense has been average during conference play allowing 1.03 points per possession, but where they’re really struggling is guarding the perimeter,  allowing over 39% from three-point range. USC hits 35% of their three pointers, so it’s quite possible that they shoot UCLA right out of this game.

Another problem for UCLA is it will be once against without 6-10 center Jalen Hill. That’s going to be a major problem, since they only have two other guys that stands above 6-6, which is not something you want to deal with when you’re facing the tallest team in the nation.

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When UCLA has the ball

Typically, you don’t think of Mick Cronin coached teams as being offensive juggernauts, but that’s exactly what UCLA has been this season. The Bruins rank 19th in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are averaging a solid 1.08 points per possession during Pac-12 play.

Where the Bruins hurt opponents the most is from behind the arc,  shooting a Pac-12 best 38.5% from three-point range. However, they only shoot threes on 31% of their field goal attempts, so most of their attempts come inside, which is a recipe for disaster against this USC defense.

The Trojans allow only 43% from two-point range and 51.6% on shots at the rim. With their size, its not surprising opponents are having difficulty inside, and it’s also not surprising that they also have the highest block rate in the Pac-12.

USC is the No. 1 defense in the Pac-12, allowing only 0.95 points per possession and held UCLA to  0.73 points per possession in the first meeting. Unless UCLA can get hot from three-point range, I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to beat USC.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think USC is going to dominate this matchup inside. Their performance on Thursday is a snapshot of how talented this Trojan team is and how difficult they are to break down on defense. I don’t think UCLA has the size to matchup with the Trojans, so I really like USC in this matchup.

I have USC projected as -5.34 favorites on the road, so I think there is a ton of value on the Trojans at -1.5 (FanDuel).

Pick: USC -1.5 | Play up to -3.5

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