Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor
McGregor vs. Poirier Odds
| Fighter | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | -130 | 54.04% |
| Conor McGregor | +108 | 45.96% |
Odds via DraftKings. Probabilities with the juice removed. A $10 bet on McGregor would yield $10.80.
The betting tide has turned between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier the week of UFC 264.
McGregor is now the betting underdog at U.S. sportsbooks in his trilogy fight against Poirier, which will be the main event of Saturday’s pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Coming off the knockout loss at UFC 257 in January, McGregor opened as a -120 favorite against Poirier, who was coming back as a short +105 dog. They were a -110 pick at some places, including DraftKings.
Now, McGregor is the dog anywhere from +108 at DK to even-money at BetMGM and FanDuel. He’s +104 at PointsBet.
Poirier is up to -130 as the favorite.
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The two have exchanged knockout victories in the first two meetings. McGregor closed as a -260 favorite for the first meeting in 2014 when he won. He closed as an even heavier favorite north of -300 in the rematch, when Poirier finished him in the second round.
Should the line hold, it will be just the third time “Notorious” closes as a dog. He lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov at +162 in 2018 and defeated Jose Aldo at -108 in 2015.
Poirier has been the favorite in half of his last six fights. He was -250 against Dan Hooker, -155 against Eddie Alvarez and -125 against Justin Gaethje in 2018. He was an underdog to McGregor, Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway.
The two put title hopes on hold — mainly, Poirier — in favor of this big-money trilogy. But the winner will be in the conversation for a meeting with current lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, who rode a 9-fight winning streak to the belt.
The loser will have options, including Michael Chandler, who just lost to Oliveira.
However, a McGregor loss would be his third in a row and bring into question what’s next for the former champion.
