Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: United States veteran Megan Rapinoe.
We’re through one matchday of women’s soccer at the 2021 Toyko Olympics, and it came with at least one major surprise. Will we see more of the same when all 12 teams are back in action Saturday morning?
The United States lost 3-0 to Sweden on Wednesday, and moved from -165 to win gold (about a 50% chance with the juice removed) to +110 (roughly 40% chance) odds.
The U.S. is a -2500 favorite against New Zealand in its second match of the tournament, and will need to pad its goal differential in case tiebreakers come into play. The top two teams advance from each of the three groups, plus the two third-place teams with the most points.
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2021 Olympic Women’s Soccer Schedule & Results
Women’s soccer at the Olympics features three matchdays, with all 12 teams in action, unlike the World Cup or Euro 2020. The second of those matchdays happens Saturday in the early morning hours of the Eastern Time Zone.
The USWNT is in action at 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday on NBCSN against New Zealand.
All four quarterfinal matches will be played July 30, with the semifinals and medal-round games the following Monday and Thursday. The gold-medal match will be at 10 a.m. ET and more viewable for the American audience.
Wednesday
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Great Britain 2, Chile 0 | 3:30 a.m. | Olympic |
| Brazil 5, China 0 | 4 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Sweden 3, USA 0 | 4:30 a.m. | USA |
| Japan 1, Canada 1 | 6:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Netherlands 10, Zambia 3 | 7 a.m. | Olympic |
| Australia 2, New Zealand 1 | 7:30 a.m. | USA |
Saturday
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Chile vs. Canada | 3:30 a.m. | Telemundo |
| China vs. Zambia | 4 a.m. | None |
| Sweden vs. Australia | 4:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Japan vs. Great Britain | 6:30 a.m. | None |
| Netherlands vs. Brazil | 7 a.m. | Universo |
| New Zealand vs. USA | 7:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
Tuesday, July 27
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand vs. Sweden | 4 a.m. | N/A |
| USA vs. Australia | 4 a.m. | USA |
| Chile vs. Japan | 7 a.m. | Universo |
| Canada vs. Great Britain | 7 a.m. | N/A |
| Netherlands vs. China | 7:30 a.m. | N/A |
| Brazil vs. Zambia | 7:30 a.m. | Telemundo |
Group Standings
The 12 teams in the Olympic women’s soccer tournament are broken into three four-team groups. The top two teams will automatically advance, and two third-place teams with the most points will also reach the quarterfinals.
That’s why the U.S. still has a path to winning gold despite that 3-0 opening loss to Sweden.
Group E
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Great Britain | 3 |
| Canada | 1 |
| Japan | 1 |
| Chile | 0 |
Bet365 now makes Great Britain now a nearly -200 favorite to win this group, with Canada and Japan at identical odds of +333. Britain and Japan face off Saturday.
Group F
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | 3 |
| Brazil | 3 |
| China | 0 |
| Zambia | 0 |
The Netherlands (-162) is still favored to win Group F, with Brazil close behind at +120 odds. China and Zambia, due to goal difference, are virtually eliminated (both are 250-1 or higher).
Group G
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Sweden | 3 |
| Australia | 3 |
| USA | 0 |
| New Zealand | 0 |
Sweden is now a -250 to win this group, with the United States at +275. Australia, which was a longshot entering the tournament, is down to +700.
Still, the U.S. is favored to win gold because it’s path to the knockout round is still clear. It will just have a much harder time winning its group after that opening-match setback.
Projected Bracket
Friday, July 30
Game 1: 2E v 2F — 4 a.m. ET
Game 2: 1E v 3F or 3G — 5 a.m. ET
Game 3: 1G v 3E or 3F — 6 a.m. ET
Game 4: 1F v 2G — 7 a.m. ET
Semifinals
Monday, Aug. 2
Game 5: Game 1 vs. Game 4 winners — 4 a.m. ET
Game 6: Game 2 vs. Game 3 winners — 7 a.m. ET
Medal matches
Thursday, Aug. 5
Game 7: Bronze medal match — 4 a.m. ET
Game 8: Gold medal match — 10 am. ET
Odds to Win Gold Medal
Odds via Bet365 after the first match of the tournament, with the juice removed from probabilities.
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| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| USA | +110 | 39.4% |
| Netherlands | +500 | 13.79% |
| Great Britain | +500 | 13.79% |
| Sweden | +550 | 12.7% |
| Brazil | +1200 | 6.3% |
| Australia | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Japan | +1600 | 4.8% |
| Canada | +2000 | 3.9% |
| New Zealand | +75000 | .09% |
| China | +100000 | .08% |
| Chile | +125000 | .06% |
| Zambia | +200000 | .04% |
U.S. Women’s Roster
Goalkeeper (2): Adrianna Franch (Portland Thorns FC), Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars)
Defense (6): Abby Dahlkemper (Manchester City), Tierna Davidson (Chicago Red Stars), Crystal Dunn (Portland Thorns FC), Kelley O’Hara (Washington Spirit), Becky Sauerbrunn (Portland Thorns FC), Emily Sonnett (Washington Spirit)
Midfielders (5): Julie Ertz (Chicago Red Stars), Lindsey Horan (Portland Thorns FC), Rose Lavelle (OL Reign), Kristie Mewis (Houston Dash), Samantha Mewis (NC Courage)
Forwards (5): Tobin Heath, Carli Lloyd (NJ/NY Gotham FC), Alex Morgan (Orlando Pride), Christen Press, Megan Rapinoe (OL Reign)