Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Neil Magny.
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On Wednesday, the UFC continues its run at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi with its second of three fight cards over a seven-day span. Wednesday’s card showcases eight preliminary bouts, beginning at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN, before continuing with a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET.
The main event is a welterweight contest between No. 8-ranked Michael Chiesa and No. 9-contender Neil Magny.
If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
Due to the strange start time for Wednesday’s card, some books have yet to put out their entire prop menus for the slate of 14 fights, but I wanted to get the fight projections into your hands as early as possible so that you can make your own actionable decisions as individual books open their prop markets.
As a result, I have yet to finalize my own betting card for Wednesday, but I will continue to update this post on Tuesday with wagers and bet notes for my tracked plays.
Check out the betting odds for Wednesday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks for each fight below.
UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks
Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Wednesday’s 14 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
UFC Fight Night Prop Projections and Picks
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.
UFC Fight Night Picks
To reiterate the strategy from my last card, based upon (1) my analysis of the difference in finish rates between 25- and 30-foot cages; and (2) my 2020 performance, I’ll continue to target overs and decision props on Fight Island.
The Fights I’m Betting
I will update this section when I have added additional wagers for Wednesday.
Dalcha Lungiambula va. Markus Perez
I see value on this bout from multiple angles, with the projection assuming that Dalcha — who is moving down from Light Heavyweight to Middleweight — will finish Perez, who was flattened in October by debutant Dricus du Plessis and is now taking this fight on short notice (replacing Karl Roberson).
I would bet Dalcha’s moneyline up to -170 (implied 63%) — at a five-percent edge relative to my projection (68%) — and as a preferred option to his odds to win inside the distance (projected -129, or 56.3%). Prior to the recent knockout loss, Perez was famously durable, though Dalcha carries more power than any of the Brazilian’s previous opponents.
The fight itself also offers value to end inside the distance (listed -240, or 70.6%, projected -327, or 76.6%), but that is far too steep of a line for me inside of the 30-foot cage, and I don’t think Perez has the wrestling to put Dalcha into dangerous positions on the ground.
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Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Andrade
Murphy has looked extremely well-rounded through a pair of UFC bouts and is both larger (two inches taller, five extra inches of reach) and younger (six years) than Andrade. He should also be the faster and stronger man, and both the market (-110) and my projection (-114) anticipate Murphy winning inside the distance more often than not.
That’s a tough ask in a featherweight bout (historic 45.4% finish rate), however, and particularly against a 30-fight veteran who has only been stopped by Petr Yan. I don’t see quite enough value to make a play on either fighter to win by stoppage or for the fight to end inside the distance, but I would include Murphy in a small parlay.
| [Bet Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Andrade now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |
Mounir Lazzez vs. Warlley Alves
Of the three potential parlay pieces that I might recommend, Lazzez gives me the most pause. “The Sniper” was impressive in his UFC debut (98-67 in significant strikes against Abdul Razak Alhassan) but he wasn’t considered to be a particularly high-level prospect coming into that fight, and is now a substantial favorite against an 11-time Octagon veteran, and a superior grappler in Alves.
The Brazilian has stated that he expects a striking matchup, however – which works against his most likely path to victory (submission). If I expected Alves to wrestle, I might avoid this fight – but takedowns have emptied his gas tank quickly in past fights, and he might stick to his word against Lazzez.
Given the path to a finish for both men, I have an interest in the Under 2.5 rounds (projected -182 to end inside the distance) to about -130, and I’ll also be including Lazzez as a small parlay piece.
| [Bet Mounir Lazzez vs. Warlley Alves now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |
Neil Magny vs. Michael Chiesa
My colleague Erich Richter did a full breakdown of Wednesday’s main event, and we arrived at the same conclusion: there is value both in the fight to go the distance, and for Magny to win via decision.
I projected those odds at -169 and +128 respectively and would play them to -150 and +140.
Since joining Team Elevation in Colorado, Magny has made considerable improvements to both his grappling and defensive wrestling, in addition to strengthening his already impressive cardio.
Chiesa could have some success in the early rounds, but Magny should eventually wear him down from range with his length (five-inch reach advantage) and pull away on the scorecards — if he can prevent Chiesa from mounting his back and choking him out in the early going.
| [Bet Neil Magny vs. Michael Chiesa now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.] |
The Fights I’m Passing On
I will update this section when I have decided to pass on a fight on this card completely.
Victoria Leonardo vs. Manmon Fiorot
I don’t see any projected value plays in this matchup between UFC debutants, but a finish does seem likely. Fiorot to win inside the distance (projected +223, listed +215) is the closest thing to a lean that I can recommend. The Frenchwoman is a far more technical striker and Leonardo has been dropped several times on the feet.
Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets
Distance or Decision Props and Overs
- Neil Magny wins via Decision (+150, 0.5 units)
- Magny / Chiesa Goes the Distance (-140, 0.5u)
Inside the Distance Props and Unders
- Lazzez/Alves, Under 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.5u)
Moneylines
- Dalcha Lungiambula -140 (1 u)
- Parlay: Lazzez / Mudaerji / Murphy (+128, 0.5u)
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