Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Charles Rosa and Justin Jaynes.
Charles Rosa vs. Justin Jaynes Odds
| Charles Rosa Odds | -177 |
| Justin Jaynes Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-106 / -125) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | 1:20 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday at 4 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. | |
The pride of Boston, Massachusetts, Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa faces off against Justin Jaynes in the UFC lightweight division. Jaynes has lost his last three fights but has made a bold proclamation regarding Saturday’s bout.
Jaynes says that he and his coaches bet his entire fight purse ($25,000) on himself to beat Charles Rosa. Importantly, this is not a Pete Rose situation: UFC fighters are allowed to bet on themselves. Obviously, they cannot bet against themselves in a fight.
Rosa is as tough as they come and has very strong jiu-jitsu skills. Jaynes is looking to keep the fight standing and land a massive knockout victory. It will be kill-or-be-killed for our undercard best bet this weekend.
Tale of the Tape
| Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5-0 | 16-7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:16 | 6:17 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’7″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/24/86 | 8/10/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.11 | 3.58 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.78 | 6.49 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.76 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 0% |
| TD Def | 40% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Jaynes is a stand-up fighter that has demonstrated below-average ground skills. He has not taken down anyone in the UFC and defends takedowns at just a 33% clip. When he gets tired, we have witnessed his penchant for poor striking defense and lazy takedowns.
Rosa is one of the better jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC, but his striking is where he could have issues. This, in turn, could be problematic for Jaynes, who was nearly submitted by Devonte Smith — a fighter who is not known for his grappling prowess. Rosa should be looking for his D’Arce and arm triangle chokes in this fight.
Jaynes’ efficiency as a striker has a lot to be desired as well (-2.91 striking differential). Nevertheless, his knockout is legitimate, so he will be looking for an early finish.
The best way for Jaynes to win this fight is to land an early knockout and keep this fight off of the ground. If Rosa gets an opportunity to submit, this fight is likely a wrap.
Rosa vs. Jaynes Pick
Jaynes was dominated by Devonte Smith and struggled against Gabriel Benitez, too. The low leg was particularly devastating for Benitez against Jaynes.
American Top Team is known for producing fighters that successfully implement low calf kicks in their game — most notably by Dustin Poirier who used them brilliantly against Conor McGregor in January. Rosa uses that American Top Team teaching to his advantage in order to land consistent leg kicks during his fights. Jaynes has really struggled in the past with defending leg kicks.
Jaynes is betting on himself and you cannot blame him; everyone should bet on themselves. However, Rosa is a very difficult fighter to knock out; and Jaynes is not a high-volume striker, which makes a decision-win unlikely. Jaynes has not won a decision since 2016 (10 fights).
Rosa has a clear advantage on the ground, so a submission victory is likely if he can get the fight to the mat. I don’t see much value on either fighter’s moneyline. Instead, I much prefer the method of victory props in this fight.
Fight not to go the distance is -146 on FanDuel, which is better than my projection of -165. I will be betting that round prop to cover a career-altering early knockout win for Jaynes. An early firefight where Jaynes tests Rosa’s chin is very likely; he is fighting for his UFC career on Saturday.
If Rosa survives the early onslaught, then he should be able to get this fight to the mat and pick up a submission victory — cashing his submission prop and the fight not to go to decision prop. FanDuel has Rosa by submission at +280, which I would bet down to +220.
The Picks:
- Fight Not To Go To Decision -146 (1u)
- Rosa via Submission +280 (.75u)
