Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): Shamil Abdurakhimov and Chris Daukaus.
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus Odds
| Abdurakhimov Odds | +172 |
| Daukaus Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-142 / +112) |
| Venue | T-Mobile Arena |
| Time | Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here. | |
Two top-10 heavyweight contenders will go head-to-head at UFC 266 when Shamil Abdurakhimov and Chris Daukaus square off Saturday. Below I preview the betting odds and break down this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
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Tale of the Tape
| Abdurakhimov | Daukaus | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-5 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:43 | 2:23 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 6’3″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 235 lbs. | 250 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/2/81 | 9/25/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.45 | 11.78 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 61% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.45 | 3.22 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.23 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 24% | 0% |
| TD Def | 47% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
The UFC is doing its best to hype up Daukaus — who has slick boxing and owns a BJJ black belt — by feeding him name-brand opponents to pad his highlight reel.
Abdurakhimov is in a relatively similar spot to his last opponent — Aleksei Oleinik — as a slow, 40-year-old heavyweight at an extreme athletic disadvantage.
The Dagestani hasn’t competed since September 2019 — a knockout loss against Curtis Blaydes — and he’s pulled out of five fights in the interim, which isn’t a great look coming into this fight.
All three of his losses in the UFC have come by knockout, while Daukaus has registered a trio of first-round finishes.
Abdurakhimov potentially offers some wrestling upside (1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, 24% accuracy), but Daukaus is an underrated grappler in his own right. And outside of Shamil landing a giant bomb — and he does carry power in his hands — I don’t see his return to the Octagon going particularly well against a much younger and faster opponent.
The critical questions on the Daukaus side are durability and cardio. He’s been knocked out twice before on the regional scene and hasn’t been to a third-round in five years. However, Daukaus has seemingly put in a lot of work to slim his physique, which should pay dividends if this fight gets extended.
Abdurakhimov vs. Daukaus Pick
I have seen some love for Daukaus to win in Round 1 (+320 at FanDuel), but I think he can carry his power into Round 2, at least.
While I show value on the Daukaus’ moneyline (projected -232), I don’t love laying that much juice in a standup-based heavyweight fight.
Furthermore, I projected his odds to win inside the distance at -127 and I would prefer to take the reduced juice on Daukaus to secure another finish. You can play that prop up to -110.
The Pick: Chris Daukaus wins Inside the Distance (+100)
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