Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Bobby Green.
UFC 265 doesn’t have the big-time championship fight on top of the card, but there is plenty of intrigue throughout.
For the second time in 2021, the Toyota Center in Houston will host a UFC pay-per-view event. This time, it’s a 13-fight card that is headlined by hometown favorite Derrick Lewis taking on Ciryl Gane for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks on Saturday’s massive card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Billy Ward: Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne
Contributor at The Action Network
Manel “Starboy” Kape makes a third attempt at his first UFC victory on Saturday against Ode Osborne in a flyweight bout.
Osborne, also stepping into the Octagon for the third time, is 1-1 in the UFC so far, competing once as a featherweight (on short notice) and once as a bantamweight.
I bring up Osborne’s shifting weight because I think this will be a big factor here. Osborne has two inches in height and four inches in reach on the smaller Kape, and he has also competed exclusively at bantamweight or featherweight until this fight.
Both guys have a ton of power, with 12 knockouts in 24 professional wins between them. I expect a slugfest, which should favor the larger, longer fighter. Osborne also lands more while absorbing fewer strikes per minute than Kape.
I was worried about how Osborne would look at the weigh-ins, but it was Kape who came in over the limit so I expect Osbourne to perform well here. I’m not quite sure why the fighter with a size advantage, and a better UFC record, is as high as +176 (on FanDuel) here, but I’m taking it.
There’s a few other bets I’m interested in here. Osborne by KO/TKO/DQ is +800 at FanDuel, while Osborne to win by stoppage (including submission) is +450 at DraftKings. I’m not sure if I’ll be playing either of those for sure, but my favorite prop is the fight to finish inside the distance, which is +105 at BetMGM.
Combined, the two fighters have 22 of their 24 professional wins inside the distance, and I don’t see either guy playing for points. I’d bet that one anywhere you can find it at plus-money.
The Pick: Ode Osborne ML (+176, 1u) | Fight to finish inside the distance (+105, 1u)
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Sean Zerillo: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Menifield fights are fairly easy to handicap. He has about three to five minutes of cardio in his system before falling off of a cliff.
He’s been extended past the first minute of round two twice and lost both fights — a decision against Devin Clark last June and knockout loss to Ovince St. Preux last September.
Menifield returned with a quick finish over a short-notice and undersized replacement in Fabio Cherant in March and remains priced about the same here against 25-fight UFC veteran Ed Herman, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
Herman’s last win came with quite a bit of controversy. He was dropped with a knee to the body, which was deemed a groin strike, and ultimately finished his opponent after being given time to recover.
Still, prime Ed Herman would walk through Alonzo Menifield, and the 40-year-old version is capable of beating him.
Menifield is good for one early rush, where he fires straight shots down the pipe and fights his way into the clinch, but Herman should have an advantage in close positions.
“Short Fuse” is remarkably slow at this point of his career, but he remains durable and has a wealth of fight experience (42 pro fights) relative to his opponent (12).
Menifield to win in Round 1 (+130) is the only way to play the chalk side of this fight, but there’s no value on that side.
I projected Herman as a 38% underdog, and I think there’s value on his moneyline down to +180.
I also show value on Herman to win inside the distance (projected +378), and he makes a fantastic live bet after Menifield’s round of gas expires.
To go a step further, you could take a shot on Herman to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1800) as a gassed-out Menifield tries to survive.
The Picks
Ed Herman (+200, 0.5u)
Ed Herman Live after Round 1
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Erich Richter: Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev
Contributor at The Action Network
This lightweight division scrap is one of the best betting spots I’ve seen in a few cards. Fiziev has scary good power in his hands, which is a problem for any fighter. He will be looking to get Green out of there early with a quick knockout.
Green is extremely durable — he has not been knocked out since 2016, which spans his past 10 fights — and that’s where this fights gets interesting. Green prides himself on being an extremely high-volume fighter with suffocating pressure that makes every movement uncomfortable.
Typically, Green likes to back his opponents up on their back foot and play the clinch battle, something we have yet to see from Fiziev. Furthermore, he could be successful at landing takedowns when Fiziev is up against the cage.
While Fiziev’s takedown defense has held up thus far in his UFC career (100% defense rate), it is important to recognize that Green profiles a significant step up in competition from Renato Moicano and Marc Diakiese.
All nine of Green’s last fights have gone to decision. As a massive +250 underdog, I think he presents an excellent opportunity to make some real profits.
Oddsmakers are surely betting on Fiziev to land a knockout in this fight. I caution bettors to think twice when taking that bet.
Green to win by decision is +475 on PointsBet. All of his wins since 2013 are via decision. I would bet this down to +400, at least 90% of Green’s win condition is by decision.
The Pick: Green by Decision (+475)
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