Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie.
Twins vs. Indians Odds
| Twins Odds | +110 |
| Indians Odds | -135 |
| Moneyline | +110 / -135 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Minnesota Twins took the second game of this series on the road against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday, earning a 3-0 victory.
Offensively, the Twins were led by strong performances from Miguel Sano, Andrelton Simmons and Brent Rooker. Sano and Simmons had multi-hit games in the win, while Rooker added a solo home run in the seventh inning for some insurance.
Meanwhile, the Indians did manage eight hits, but failed to connect when it counted. They finished 0-3 with runners in scoring position and managed just one extra-base hit on the day.
With a rookie in Joe Ryan on the mound for the Twins and a surging Triston McKenzie opposing him for the Indians, should we be looking to the total in this Wednesday’s divisional tilt?
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Minnesota Hoping for Big Effort From Ryan
Ryan will make just the second start of his big-league career. His first start was a step in the right direction. While Ryan did allow three earned runs, including a home run, he struck out five batters and give the Twins five solid innings.
The rest of his season at Triple AAA was strong. As part of the Tampa Bay Rays organization, Ryan compiled a strong 3.24 FIP, 11.8 K/9 average and limited opposing batters to a solid 1.26 HR/9 average. The 11.8 K/9 average was especially impressive when you consider Ryan has a fastball that comes in at an average of just 92 miles per hour.
However, its’ his unique arm angle that makes the difference. His release point on the baseball is just 4.8 feet from the ground on average, giving extra life to the pitch and allows him to successfully mix in his arsenal of off-speed pitches.
He’ll take on an Indians team that has been just average so far this season against right-handed pitching. Collectively, they’ve hit to a .307 wOBA, good for just 19th among all teams.
Cleveland Pitcher McKenzie Seeking Better Start
McKenzie will take the hill in what will amount to his 20th start of the season. Overall, his season numbers aren’t very impressive. Over 97 1/3 innings, he’s compiled a 4-5 record, 4.52 FIP and allowed opposing batters to take him deep at a 1.5 HR/9 average.
That said, he’s been outstanding over his last four starts. During that time, he’s pitched to a 3-0 record, 1.97 FIP and has maintained his excellent 10 K/9 strikeout average. While McKenzie did make six starts for Cleveland last season, this year has been his true rookie campaign and it’s looking like we’re finally starting to see the No. 3-ranked pitching prospect that folks from Cleveland have been so excited about since his call-up.
He takes on a Twins offense that has had some success this year against righties. Over 3,481 plate appearances, they’ve combined for a .323 wOBA, 10th best in baseball. That said, the bats haven’t exactly been hot of-late. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged just four runs per contest.
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Twins-Indians Pick
While McKenzie’s season numbers leave something to be desired, the young pitcher has turned things up of late, as evidenced by his 3-0 record and 1.97 FIP over his last four starts. If he can bring that type off stuff to this contest, the Indians will be in good shape.
On the other side, while Ryan has just five big-league innings under his belt, all signs point to his stuff being the real deal. The Indians’ .307 wOBA against right-handed pitching also doesn’t pose the toughest matchup.
While the Twins bullpen does add some risk here (its 4.56 FIP is the seventh worst in all of baseball), I think Ryan and the relief crew have enough to keep this Indians offense in check for the third night in a row.
Given the above, I’m targeting the under in this one. BetMGM and Bet365 have the total at nine runs, but others have already shifted it to 8.5 runs.
Make sure to shop around and take this at 9 before the total shifts across the board. If it moves below that mark, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
Pick: Under 9 (-115)
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