Loren Orr/Getty Images. Pictured: Toa Taua
Tulane vs. Nevada Odds
| Tulane Odds | -2.5 |
| Nevada Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 57 |
| PRO Projection | TUL -0.8 | 57 |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Tuesday’s 3:30 p.m. ET Famous Idaho Potato Bowl kickoff will most certainly be met with plenty of attention from bettors, and per the weather forecast as of Monday night, it looks as though it’ll be met with plenty of wind as well.
That’s big news for bettors, or at least it should be based on what history says about the effect of wind on college football games.
Since 2005 (the beginning of our college football database), games played in winds of 13 mph or more have hit the under at a 56.7% rate on a sample of more than 1,000 games.
The theory makes sense, too. More wind means greater difficulty moving the ball through the air — in other words, fewer big passing plays and a greater emphasis on the run game, keeping the clock on the move more continuously. Field-goal kickers are also obviously faced with an added challenge.
With that, let’s take a look at Tuesday afternoon’s forecast in Boise.
Note: Odds, data as of 8 p.m. ET Monday.
Tulane vs. Nevada Weather Forecast
Winds of 14 to 17 mph are projected throughout the game, making it a clear fit for the system described above.
The wind isn’t the only weather factor pointing toward a low-scoring game, either. Rather, it’s made more effective by the 40-degree temperatures accompanying it.
Specifically, the 56.7% “windy under” clip bumps up to 59.5% when it’s filtered down to games played in no more than 45 degrees.
As of Monday night, the total for this game sits at a consensus of 57, a number that’s certainly subject to change for many reasons — not least of which is the forecast.