Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Jack Harrison, left, celebrates his goal with teammates.
Southampton vs. Leeds Odds
| Southampton Odds | +170 |
| Leeds Odds | +143 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125/ -157) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Monday evening via DraftKings. | |
Going into Tuesday’s Premier League action, only four teams have won their last two matches. Dethroned champion Liverpool, Arsenal and the sides ready to do battle at St Mary’s Stadium.
Southampton welcomes Leeds United to England’s south coast for an intriguing matchup pitting clubs that have both won back-to-back contests. It’s a little too late for either to make a run at anything, but finishing the season on a strong note isn’t the worst thing heading into the next season’s campaign.
The Peacocks, currently 10th place in the table with 53 points, cruised to a 4-0 shutout against Burnley last time out. Their hosts were just as impressive, picking up a 3-1 victory over relegated-side Fulham last Sunday.
Let’s take a look at these sides in what should be a wide-open affair.
Southampton Closing Out Season of Disappointment
The Saints have to be disappointed with the way their season has gone. They surely had to believe they would contend for a top-10 finish — and maybe even a Europa League berth — but that never panned out. Instead, they’re stuck in 14th place and ready to go on holiday.
Southampton has picked up convincing wins in its last affairs, though. The victory over Fulham came after an impressive 3-1 triumph over Crystal Palace. The club lost the battle of expected goals by a 1.5-1.3 margin, but wound up holding a 64%-36% edge in possession.
However, the Saints’ victories haven’t been against the league’s cream of the crop. Their last five wins have come against Wolves (12th place), Sheffield United (20th), Burnley (15th), Crystal Palace (13th) and 18th-place Fulham. Obviously, those results don’t make for the prettiest résumé.
The one positive Southampton brings with it heading into this affair is the fact it has won five of its last six contests against the Peacocks on home soil across all competitions.
Leeds Maintaining Brilliant Form Late in Campaign
Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks have to be excited with the way their season has gone as a whole, knowing a pair of wins in their remaining fixtures could push them all the way up to eighth place in the standings.
Leeds has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch, going unbeaten in eight of their last nine league tilts. The lone loss came via its 2-0 setback against Brighton & Hove Albion three games back. Other than that, Bielsa’s men have found success. Wins over league champion Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have been the highlights.
Leeds dominated Spurs and the Clarets when it came to expected goals, holding a 2.6-1.0 advantage against Harry Kane’s side and a 2.3-1.5 edge against its latest victim. Seven goals in those two matches proved those advanced metrics weren’t lying.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This really has the makings of being a wide-open affair. Both clubs want to end their seasons on a solid note, with a four-match win streak a distinct possibility.
For me, the advantage sits with Leeds. The club has been absolutely fantastic of late, featuring an offense that simply can’t be stopped. Burnley is no slouch defensively, and that rout of Tottenham was impressive from start to finish.
For that reason, I’m backing Leeds on the Draw No Bet wager at -122 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. I will also play the total going over the alternative number of 2.75 goals. The juice is a little high at the moment, so you might have to hold off and make this a live play in hopes of getting a better price.
Pick: Leeds — Draw No Bet (-122) | Total Over 2.75 Goals (-165)
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