Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Victor Lindelof.
Manchester United vs. Fulham Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -335 |
| Fulham Odds | +850 |
| Draw | +460 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +138) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Tuesday morning via DraftKings. | |
The Premier League season is winding down with just two matches left for each team in the final week of the season. The condensed schedule has made this one of the most packed fixture lists in the history of the league, so it should come as no surprise that some teams have taken their foot off the gas with little to play for.
Manchester United hosts Fulham on Tuesday with not much on the line, given that United has clinched top four, Fulham is already relegated, and the Red Devils will have one eye on their Europa League final against Villarreal next Wednesday.
With that being said, there’s still value in this game because United is expected to play a full lineup, minus center back Harry Maguire. His absence, plus the increase in chances and goals that comes at the end of the season, produces value on plenty of goals to be scored in this matchup.
Manchester United Sees Defense Slip With Little to Play For
Man United’s defense was steadily improving throughout the second half of the season until it locked up top four. Even though it was reserves against Leicester City and a game with Liverpool, United allowed plenty of shots and chances it had not given up in matches prior.
The Red Devils had a tendency to start slow in games, too, conceding the first goal before coming back to win, which they’ve done more than any team in league history.
Watching back the two losses to Liverpool and Leicester, it’s immediately apparent how important Maguire is to the United defense. He’s been underrated in some of the underlying metrics for years, and the Red Devils are hoping to have him back for next week.
United has allowed 7.5 xG in its last four matches in all competitions, all with very little on the line. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær has opened it up and let United play with freedom, and the result has been plenty of goals in both nets.
Both sides have been in the bottom-eight of defenses in the last three weeks of league action.
Fulham Regressed as Relegation Became Clear
Fulham’s relegation from the PL was surprising if you look at its underlying numbers.
The Cottagers never quite put the pieces together and often looked worse than the sum of their parts. But for all of the talk of Brighton’s xG woes, Fulham is up there with them in attack. Only Brighton has underperformed in finishing in front of goal more than the Cottagers this year.
And while their defense had improved significantly for a long stretch in the middle of the season, it has regressed hard in the recent weeks since relegation became clear with nearly two xG allowed each to Burnley and Southampton, three to Arsenal and almost two to Chelsea. Teams in relegation scraps tend to see improvements defensively in the final weeks, but once they are relegated, there’s no telling how they will respond.
For Fulham, that’s been negatively. It’s seen seven losses and one draw in its last eight, and it’s only deserved a win in one of those games after being thoroughly outplayed.
United should have no problems breaking it down and creating chances, while the Cottagers should be able to nab one themselves against a weaker United backline.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Unders have been a cash cow the entire Premier League season, the most profitable since BetLabs began tracking the data in 2012-13.
I have barely even played overs all year.
But like the start of the season when games were wide open with plenty of chances and shots before managers adjusted, I’m expecting a similar frenetic run of goal-scoring as some players have one eye on the beach vacations after the season.
The market’s movement seems to be pricing in that United’s top attackers will start, and there should be plenty of goals if they do.
Pick: Total Over 3 (-110 or better)
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