Mike Hewitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Welbeck and Adam Lallana of Brighton & Hove Albion.
Brighton vs. Manchester City Odds
| Brighton Odds | +600 |
| Manchester City Odds | -220 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-139 / +112) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 2 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Monday evening and via DraftKings. | |
Brighton and Manchester City meet on the coast of England for Tuesday afternoon clash at the American Express Stadium.
Brighton’s season has been filled with missed chances and results they don’t deserve. However, the Seagulls have survived relegation and will be in the Premier League next season. They’ve pulled off upsets over Liverpool and Tottenham this season, so they are capable of beating a Manchester City side that has nothing to play for, having already secured their third title under Pep Guardiola.
The question now is: what team will Guardiola select? The Champions League final is fewer than two weeks away, so does he risk the chance of some of his best players getting hurt, or will he give some of the second-team players a chance to take the field?
Seagulls Continue to Underperform Their Projections
The Seagulls’ 2020-21 season will go down in history as the unluckiest season for a Premier League team. Brighton has nothing left to play for in this match, but the difference between Brighton’s actual results and their expected goals/points is quite astonishing.
The main reason Brighton aren’t higher in the table is because their offense has squandered a ton of high-quality chances.
Brighton’s expected goals record at home is astonishing, as well. The Seagulls have a +17.97 xGD at home, which is third in the Premier League to only Manchester City and Chelsea.
The Seagulls’ defense has been unbelievable at home this season as well, as it only allows 0.80 xG per match at the American Express Stadium. So even though Manchester City has the best offense in the Premier League they are likely going to struggle to create chances against Brighton’s defense.
What Kind of Lineup Will Manchester City Field?
In the match against Newcastle on Friday, Pep Guardiola rested a lot of key players, which paved way for their young sensation Ferran Torres to bag his first career hat trick, including this incredible goal.
FERRAN TORRES. HOW?! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/OPcEogRMzX
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) May 14, 2021
I think we will see a similar lineup on Tuesday since the Cityzens have already secured the title. Guardiola certainly wants to keep everyone fresh for the Champions League final against Chelsea in two weeks, so I don’t expect him to risk any of his key players.
Whether it’s the regular starters or some of the backups in the lineup, let’s not get things twisted: Manchester City is an incredibly deep team and will still be the more talented team on the field. Over the past two months, the Cityzens are destroying their opponents in the Premier League, averaging 2.12 xGF per match while allowing only 0.89 xG per match.
What’s been most impressive about Manchester City this season has been its performance away from home. The Cityzens have won their last 12 away matches in the Premier League, outscoring opponents 32-6 in the process. So, although Brighton’s underlying metrics are impressive, they are going to have their hands full on Tuesday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though neither team has much to play for, I think Brighton is still undervalued. Their underlying metrics at home are too good to ignore and I think they will be able to get a result against the Premier League champions.
Therefore, I am going to back Brighton’s spread of +1 at +112 (DraftKings).
Pick: Brighton +1 (+112)
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