Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Wolves star Pedro Neto.
Manchester City vs. Wolves Odds
| Manchester City Odds | -530 |
| Wolves Odds | +1700 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-136 / +108) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Finding a way to defeat — or even get a draw — European juggernaut Manchester City has escaped 19 different opponents over the course of 20 consecutive matches. No matter the competition, it has been all roses for manager Pep Guardiola and his lads.
However, an opponent that’s picked up two wins in its last three meetings with the inevitable Premier League champion will take its shot at ending City’s unbelievable run of results.
Wolves make the journey to Etihad Stadium on Tuesday for an intriguing match with the Cityzens. The visitors have been a nice run of their own, going unbeaten in their last five matches in league play. Wolves enter this fixture coming off a disappointing 1-1 stalemate with Newcastle United last time out.
As for Manchester City, things could not be going any better. The Cityzens’ extended their insane win streak in their 2-1 victory over West Ham United in their most recent contest on Saturday. They’re now 12 points clear of second-place Manchester United in the table.
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Manchester City
In my opinion, this is the best football club on the planet. Guardiola’s offense is humming, but more importantly the defense has been pretty much unbreakable during a run that hasn’t seen the Cityzens lose a match since a Nov. 21 setback against Tottenham.
Digging even deeper into Manchester City’s aforementioned dominance also shows a club unbeaten in its last 27 matches, winning an absurd 24 of those tilts. The only teams to pick up points via ties have been Manchester United and lowly West Bromwich Albion.
That other non-win came via a 1-1 draw with Portuguese side Porto in a Champions League group-stage contest.
As you probably imagined, Manchester City has been the class of the league when it comes to the advanced metrics. The Cityzens sit on a 49.2 expected goals and a stingy 19.5 expected goals against, resulting in a +29.7 xGDiff and +1.14 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Wolves
Manager Nuno Espírito Santo has to be pleased with his club’s recent form, with its lone blemish in its last six fixtures coming in the form of a 2-0 defeat against Southampton in the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Other than that setback, Wolves secured three wins and two draws that generated 11 points in the Premier League. They’re now sitting comfortably in 12th place with a good chance of finishing in the top half of the standings if they maintain this level of play.
Pedro Neto and Rúben Neves lead the line with five goals apiece. It goes without saying both need to be at their best to give their side any sort of chance at pulling off a shock upset at the Etihad.
When comparing numbers with Manchester City, Wolves obviously trail their foe in all major categories. However, their numbers haven’t been that poor. The club is currently on 27.1 xG and respectable 29.8 xGA, resulting in a -2.7 xGDiff and a relatively flat -0.10 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
It goes without saying Manchester City is going to be favored to win pretty much every time out in league play. However, there are going to be times when there’s value in backing the Cityzens’ opponent.
And this is one of those spots. Wolves have been nothing but problematic for Manchester City in recent matchups, a trend I see continuing in this latest affair. Espírito Santo’s lads might be overmatched on paper, but his tactics should provide enough to keep this one close.
I am backing Wolves +2 at the fair price of -136 odds. The visitors have the personnel and style of play that can frustrate their more superior foes, even the likes of these European giants. Throw in the fact Manchester City has the looming derby with Manchester United this weekend, and you have all the makings of a minor trap game for the future league champion.
If you’re looking for something else to get in on, I find plenty of value in both teams to score at +175 odds. Wolves have racked up (wait for it…) six goals in their last three meetings. This wager is worth taking a shot on.
Picks: Wolves +2 (-136) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (+175)
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