Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Carmelo Anthony of the Portland Trail Blazers.
Some days the Props Tool is just fading a few players completely. Load up the tool and the top four or five plays for one team are all unders for the same player. In those scenarios, it’s important to decipher whether a combo prop is the right play or if it’s best to isolate one stat.
That’s the decision we face Tuesday with three guys we’re playing, and we’ll play one combo, but isolate a particular stat for two others.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Carmelo Anthony — Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
| Blazers vs. Pacers | Blazers -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA TV |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The Portland Trail Blazers are starting to run out of answers. The Blazers have lost five games in a row and nine of their last 11, and that’s just as the team is finally getting healthy. CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are back, and Norman Powell has slotted in nicely as well. But the Blazers just appear to be out of steam.
One man they’re not turning to for answers? Veteran Carmelo Anthony.
As McCollum and Powell slot in and take up huge usage and shots — much more efficient usage and shots — there just hasn’t been as much left for Melo, and his role has quickly faded.
Since Powell joined the lineup, Anthony’s minutes have fallen off to just 22.4 minutes per game in 16 outings, and his numbers have fallen along with the minutes drop. He’s down to just 11.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assist per game during that stretch.
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It’s not that Melo isn’t getting shots up. He’s still at 11.1 field goal attempts per game, almost one every two minutes on the court. He’s not in a cold shooting stretch from deep either, hitting 39% in that stretch. It’s just that 22 minutes really isn’t enough to do a ton of damage, no matter how much you’re chucking.
Melo’s median outcome during this stretch is 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assist, right around his average. Of course, Melo’s covered this combo line with points alone three times during this stretch, and that’ll always be a threat with a guy like Anthony.
However, that’s why I like playing the combo prop. In case the scoring is up a bit, it gives us a bit of extra potential cushion since Melo rarely posts big rebounding or assist numbers. The points line at 12.5 looks good too, but since Melo has only gone over five rebounds + assists three times in 16 games, we may as well add those in too.
It’s time to fade the old man at his reduced minutes. Our Props Tool gives this one a 22% edge. I’ll play to -135 odds.
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Tristan Thompson — Under 10.5 Points (+104)
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Celtics -11 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | League Pass |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The Celtics remain quite shorthanded. Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are out tonight, and Robert Williams is questionable again too. Williams has missed the last six games, and his absence here might make it tempting to play a Thompson over, or at least to avoid an under like this.
But even with Williams out the last six games, Thompson’s numbers haven’t been anything special. His minutes are up to 28.6 per game, but he’s averaging just 8.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game over that stretch.
I considered playing another combo line here, but with Thompson’s minutes up, that makes it easier for him to have a randomly high line rebounding or assisting. Thompson has always been a terrific rebounder, so double digits there are always in play, and he did have five assists in his first game without Williams during this stretch.
Instead, I’ll just fade Thompson’s scoring. We project him at 8.4 points, right at his average during this stretch even with the minutes up, and he’s gone under 10.5 points in four of these six games and nine of his last 11 overall, hitting the under 82% of the time over these last 11 games. Heck, his season high is 17 points, and he’s only gone over 14 twice all year, so it’s a pretty low ceiling.
Boston will have scoring available with Walker and Tatum out, but Thompson isn’t the sort of guy to pick up that scoring load. I’ll fade the under at plus juice and play to -115 if needed.
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Caris LeVert — Under 6.5 Assists (-160)
| Blazers vs. Pacers | Blazers -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | League Pass |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Caris LeVert is healthy and back on the basketball court, and boy are the Indiana Pacers grateful. The Pacers are missing T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner, so they’re leaning heavily on just about anyone else they can find.
LeVert is averaging 18.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists a game for the Pacers, and he’s now played 24 games for Indiana. He hasn’t really found his shooting boots yet, but he’s quickly become a reliable wing starter for a team desperate for that very thing.
Even so, LeVert isn’t hitting the typical high highs he’s had sometimes in the past, even in these super shorthanded games. There are occasional scoring outbursts, mostly just volume plays, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see one of those tonight against Portland’s soft defense.
Our Props Tool likes pretty much all the LeVert unders tonight, but I’m skipping the points and rebounds and honing in on his passing. I’m just not sure why this number is so high, even with Sabonis out. LeVert has only gone over 6.5 assists twice for the Pacers. That’s two out of 24 games, meaning he’s gone under this line 92% of the time.
Some books are offering plus juice to go under 5.5 assists. We project LeVert at 4.7 assists so those look like good plays too. But this is about as close to a sure thing as we get these days, so I’ll drink the juice at -160 and would play under 6.5 as high as -200 while it’s available.
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