Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees star Aaron Judge.
Yankees vs. Royals Odds
| Yankees Odds | -150 |
| Royals Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 10 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Tuesday morning via DraftKings. | |
After one of the wildest games you’ll ever see, the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will do it again in Kansas City on Tuesday, with the visitors eyeing the series victory.
After a pair of exciting righties took the hill and gave us a pitcher’s duel through seven innings, two young lefties in Nestor Cortes and Daniel Lynch will try to do the same.
There’s value to be found here, but is it in the short road underdog or game total? Let’s figure that out in the numbers below.
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New York Keeps Chipping Away at Division Deficit
The second half of the season has been wildly productive for the Yankees, who have moved to within six games in the AL East and just two out of a wild-card spot, but their performance has been a mixed bag. New York has had some great nights at the plate and lifted by some sensational pitching, but on the whole, it sports pretty pedestrian numbers.
Offensively, the Yankees are in the wrong half of the league since the start of the second half with a 100 wRC+, which would peg them as a perfectly average offense. They’re also now missing multiple key bats with Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, Gio Urshela and Gleyber Torres on the shelf.
Despite all of this, though, the Yankees have found a way at the plate and withstood a stupid four comebacks from the Royals in Tuesday’s matchup. The replacements for most of these players are surprisingly competent with the bat in their hands, most notably Luke Voit, who hit a go-ahead homer in the ninth inning Monday.
Cortes will get the ball once again in this spot, with the fourth-year journeyman doing nothing but impress this year. In his four starts, he’s allowed a combined three runs in 18 innings on 12 hits with 13 strikeouts.
On the whole this season, in 37 2/3 innings, he’s pitched to a shiny 2.67 xERA with a 27.3% strikeout rate that sits well above average. He’s induced plenty of soft contact when he hasn’t been punching out hitters, yielding just three barrels. Simply put, this year has been more of the same for the lefty, who has looked like a fantastic option ever since putting on the pinstripes.
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Kansas City
Speaking of barrels, hard-hit balls aren’t something we’re normally concerned with when it comes to the Royals, who even with a huge outburst late on Monday still have made hard contact at a below-average 37.6% clip since the All-Star break. They have a minuscule 11.9% fly ball-to-home run ratio and a microscopic 6.6% walk rate
Kansas City has been making a lot of contact (ninth-best Contact percentage since the break), but it’s failed to do damage when the ball has been put in play. That hurts when you’re not getting many runners on via the free pass. Those are also damning numbers in a matchup with a fly-ball pitcher like Cortes, who has been victimized by the walk this year. To make matters worse, they hold just a .717 OPS against lefties this year.
This will also be another chance for Royals No. 2 prospect Daniel Lynch, who entered the league with much acclaim but hasn’t quite shown what he’s capable of. Recent starts have shown a market improvement, though, with an eight-inning shutout of the Detroit Tigers in July and a seven-strikeout outing against the Chicago White Sox last time out.
The sample is still very small, and there’s been plenty of bad mixed in with the good, but the potential of the lefty is evident. The one knock against him early on could be his control, issuing nine walks in 27 innings.
Yankees-Royals Pick
Every bit of me wants to fade the Yankees away from Yankee Stadium with a depleted lineup, but the pitching matchups so far haven’t called for it.
The fact of the matter is, Lynch is still a tough sell even coming off the good outings, with a Yankees team that has been mashing lefties to the tune of a 114 wRC+ (second in baseball) and led the way in walk rate this year. A fastball-throwing lefty with barrel and walk issues isn’t appealing at all against this team, which will be very patient at the plate and make quality contact when it does put the ball in play.
Furthermore, Cortes has been lights out for New York and will once again have a great matchup in front of him with Kansas City. The Royals have been suffering in the power department, and haven’t converted very many of their fly balls into homers.
At a bigger park, I like Cortes, who allows fly balls and strikes guys out, to limit the Royals, and I especially like that Kansas City is impatient at the dish, helping out the lefty with his walk issues.
This doesn’t feel like a smart pick, but the numbers are very much on the Yankees’ side here.
Pick: Yankees ML (-150)
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