Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer (left) and Aaron Nola.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -165 |
| Phillies Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | Tuesday, 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-PH |
| Odds as of Tuesday morning via Caesars. | |
The Los Angeles Dodgers will head on the road Tuesday to begin an important three-game series against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies.
The Dodgers (67-45) find themselves in second place in the National League West heading into this one, four games behind the San Francisco Giants. They do, however, have a relatively comfortable 3.5 game lead for the first NL Wild Card spot, something they hope to build upon in this series. They’ve played just slightly above average of-late, finishing 6-4 over their last ten games.
The Phillies (59-53), meanwhile, find themselves atop the National League East heading into this one, two games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia has been playing excellent baseball over the last couple of weeks, compiling an 8-2 record over their last ten outings.
With new addition Max Scherzer on the mound, can the Dodgers take the first game of this series on the road against a formidable opponent in Phillies ace Aaron Nola?
Will Scherzer Stay Dominant for Dodgers?
Scherzer will make his second start of the season for the Dodgers after a blockbuster trade sent him and Trea Turner to Los Angeles at the July 31st deadline.
Scherzer’s first start in Los Angeles, while shorter than he would have liked, highlighted just why the Dodgers made this trade. Over five innings, he struck out ten batters while allowing just two earned runs in a game the Dodgers eventually won.
Scherzer’s season has been dominant, per usual. Over 118 innings pitched, he’s compiled a 9-4 record, 2.75 ERA and struck out batters at an 11.97 K/9 clip. That said, it does appear he’s been a bit lucky to have kept that ERA under 3.00 thus far.
His 3.54 FIP is nearly a full run higher than his ERA, indicating we may see a bit of negative regression heading his way during the second half. He’s also allowing 1.45 HR/9 and an 11.1% Barrel rate, both the highest numbers of his career.
That said, his matchup tonight is a solid one. He’ll take on a Phillies team that has been just average against righties this season, compiling a .310 wOBA thus far (15th in MLB). They have been extremely hot at the plate, however, averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last ten outings.
_BookPromo=1425
Can Phillies Get Positive Regression from Nola?
Nola will take the hill for the home team on Tuesday night in what will amount to his 23rd start of the season so far. The Phillies ace has struggled in 2021 to-date, pitching to a 7-6 record and a subpar 4.49 ERA. He’s also been wildly inconsistent. While his 3.94 FIP over his last ten starts isn’t terrible, he has six outings in that time where he’s allowed four earned runs or more. In the other four starts, he’s limited opponents to just three total runs over 27 2/3 innings.
Nola’s 3.55 FIP on the season, nearly one full run lower than his ERA, does indicate that some positive regression is likely in his future during the coming months, but it’s unlikely that it comes tonight against this powerful Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles is one of the best teams in baseball on the year against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .336 wOBA thus far. That’s good for the third highest mark in all of baseball.
_BookPromo=74
Dodgers-Phillies Pick
Despite the likelihood that we’re going to see better days out of Nola going forward this season, things don’t bode particularly well for tonight given the matchup against the Dodgers. Not only have they been extremely strong against right-handed pitching this year, they’ve also been one of the better road teams in baseball with their 31-25 record thus far.
Additionally, starter Max Scherzer has also dominated this Phillies team so far this season. In two starts so far, Scherzer has allowed just two earned runs and struck out 14 batters over 13 2/3 innings. When he exits, the Dodgers will also have the luxury of turning the ball over to a bullpen that currently ranks 7th in all of baseball with a 3.88 FIP this year.
While -160 feels a bit pricey for a road team against a division-leading opponent, all signs point to the Dodgers taking care of business in this one. I like this up to through the -165 range, but I would hesitate if it the price jumps up much higher than that.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-165)
_BookPromo=3770