Manu Reino/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | +170 |
| Liverpool Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-124 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. | |
Liverpool and Real Madrid meet in the Champions League for the first time since the 2018 final.
For those who don’t remember Mohamed Salah was at the peak of his talents and being talked about in the same conversation as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, as he scored 52 goals in all competitions that season. However, he was forced off early after Sergio Ramos injured his shoulder on a questionable play.
From then on, Real Madrid took advantage of a couple of Liverpool mistakes en route to a 3-1 victory and their third straight Champions League title.
Both teams though come into the match with some major injury problems in defense. Liverpool is still without their top three center backs in Virgil Van Djik, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez, while Real Madrid is going to be without captain Sergio Ramos. Both teams though have an amazing opportunity with either Porto or Chelsea awaiting the winner in the semifinals.
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Real Madrid
Real Madrid took care of business against Atalanta in the Round of 16, beating the Italian side 4-1 on aggregate and more importantly dominating them on expected goals, 4.49-1.43.
Real Madrid is also on a great run in La Liga even since the calendar turned to 2021. Los Blancos have won 11 of their 16 matches in all competitions and have put up a +14.67 xGD in the process. They took care of business out of the international break with a routine 2-0 over Eibar on Saturday.
Zinedine Zidane’s 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams this season, as Los Blancos are registering 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and only allowing 1.00 when playing out of that formation.
Additionally, Karim Benzema has been the man in form, notching 0.67 xG per 90 minutes in La Liga this season. He’ll be a very difficult matchup for Liverpool’s center backs.
Real Madrid will be well equipped to handle Liverpool’s 4-3-3, since they know the setup inside and out. Not having Ramos is going to be a problem, but the captain is now 34 years old and has missed most of the season due to injury anyway, so Real Madrid is used to not having him on the field.
Liverpool
Liverpool came out of the international break firing on all cylinders, beating Arsenal 3-0 at the Emirates. However, things haven’t been going great for Jürgen Klopp’s men, who since the beginning of February have created just 1.41 xG per match, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 fixtures of the season.
The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most opponents to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.
In the last round, though, Real Madrid saw an all out high press against Atalanta and handled it quite well. If Liverpool decide to employ it, Los Blancos will be highly effective in breaking it down.
With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the rest of the season, they have to back off their high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed. Zidane knows this and will likely have Real Madrid sit back and look to hit Liverpool on the counter, over and over again.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given the problems Liverpool have had on defense, I think they are in trouble heading to Madrid on Tuesday. Real Madrid is one of the most organized and disciplined clubs on the planet with depths and depths of talent at every position and should be favored at home, in my opinion.
Since I have Real Madrid projected at +117, I think there is a lot of value on their Draw No Bet line at -105 odds.
Pick: Real Madrid Draw No Bet (-105)
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