Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Juventus vs. Porto Odds
| Juventus Odds | -225 |
| Porto Odds | +575 |
| Draw | +370 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-137 / +112) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS All-Access |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Juventus, the nine-time reigning champions of Serie A, can’t get knocked out of the Champions League by FC Porto, right? Cristiano Ronaldo can’t lose to a Portuguese team, can he?
First-year manager Andrea Pirlo’s disaster class in the first leg has us asking those questions. A 2-1 Porto win shocked the competition and provided the biggest upset of the Round of 16, so far.
Given Juventus’ track record, though, it’s difficult to see them going out at this stage in the Champions League. Let’s examine why, and how we’re going to back the Bianconeri in Turin on Tuesday.
_BookPromo=1021
Juventus
Since the start of 2021, Juventus have been fantastic in Serie A, going 9-1-2 with a +18 goal difference.
Unfortunately for the Bianconeri, winning yet another Scudetto is looking unlikely given the impressive form of Inter Milan. Juve took just 24 points from their first 13 games, although that poor form didn’t translate over to the Champions League. They won their group, which included Barcelona.
Now, about that first leg in Portugal.
From the start, Juventus were quite literally in trouble. They gave the ball away in the center of their own 18-yard box one minute into the game and gifted Porto the opening goal. After conceding in the first minute of the second half, as well, a late Federico Chiesa goal gave Juventus a lifeline.
The key for Juventus in this game is going to be relying on their veteran defense to keep a clean sheet. A vintage Juve performance would be a 2-0 victory, with the likes of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci keeping Porto in check.
Chiellini’s availability for this game is up in the air, while Bonucci only appeared as an 82nd-minute substitute over the weekend against Lazio. Another player who came off the bench against the Roman side? Cristiano Ronaldo, who came on in the 69th minute to stay fresh for this game.
Porto
Porto are unlikely to win the Primeira Liga this season, sitting 10 points behind a dominant Sporting Lisbon with 12 games to play. Recent results haven’t helped their chase of Sporting either. Porto have dropped points in three of their last six games, including a scoreless draw against Sporting on Feb. 27. They also were eliminated from the Portuguese domestic cup competition by Braga on March 3.
The win over Juventus really, really looks like a gift from the Bianconeri to their Portuguese hosts. Porto entered that game having drawn four consecutive matches, and while they won the expected goals battle, 1.4-0.8, their two goals were primarily thanks to uncharacteristically shoddy defending from Juve.
Mehdi Taremi and Moussa Marega make up a good strike partnership for the Primeira Liga with 15 combined goals, but against the likes of Bonucci and Matthijs de Ligt, who would likely start in place of Chiellini, you’d think in a big game that they would be no match.
The most concerning stat for Porto is that they’ve conceded 22 goals in 22 league games this season.
While they were able to sit back earlier this season and lull Manchester City into a 0-0 draw during the Champions League group stages, this is a different proposition. Juventus’ top priority this season is, no doubt, winning in Europe. It’s what has alluded them during what has otherwise been an incredible run of domestic success.
I have a hard time seeing Porto hold Juventus scoreless, and the matchup against one of Europe’s hottest teams and most experienced defenses is a brutal one.
Betting Analysis & Picks
As I said, a 2-0 Juventus win seems like it would be pretty typical of what the club has been built on over the past decade: stout defending with a knack at getting a goal when they need it. That would especially be the case against an inferior Porto side.
A 2-0 Juve win is +600 on DraftKings and something I wouldn’t blame anyone for putting a small wager on. The real value, though, is on Porto’s total.
Porto’s total for this game is 0.5. The over/under is -148/+110. Given the way I’ve talked this entire post, you know where we’re headed.
When Juventus need a result like this against a lesser team, they tend to get it. An early away goal from Porto would make this a difficult comeback for Juve to make. If the Italian champions make it through the first 10 or 15 minutes without conceding, I think they’re going to be in the driver’s seat.
Porto under 0.5 goals at +110 is my best play. I’m going to keep that by itself since parlaying it with the Juventus moneyline (-225) only gets us up to +133.
Pick: Porto Under 0.5 goals +110
_BookPromo=49