Tuesday Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chelsea vs. Porto (April 13)

Chelsea vs. Porto Odds

All eyes will probably be on the other game in this Champions League time slot on Tuesday because Chelsea took total control of the tie with a 2-0 win as the away team in the first leg against Porto last week. While everyone is watching Bayern and PSG’s high stakes second leg, Chelsea will look to see out its spot in the semifinals.

The Blues weren’t exactly sharp in the first leg and played to about a draw in expected goals. But Chelsea’s excellent turn and finish from Mason Mount opened the scoring in the first half before Ben Chillwell doubled the lead in the second half after going around the keeper.

Porto will need to win by three goals or win by two goals and score at least three times to advance. Unlike their first three knockout matches when Porto could sit back and defend, the Portuguese side will have to come out to attack.

Against Chelsea, that’s no easy task and will make it very difficult for Porto to generate consistent attacks. FiveThirtyEight gives Chelsea a 98% chance to advance.

The Blues’ suffocating defense of late creates value on this game to go under.

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Chelsea

Chelsea’s attack had very little success, relatively, against this Porto defense in the opening 90 minutes. Yes, the Blues scored two goals, but they came from a moment of individual brilliance from Mount and a defensive error for the second.

Chelsea completed only four passes into the penalty area, totaled five key passes and had two progressive carries into the penalty box. Porto’s low block was effective at keeping the Blues out of dangerous areas and showed why it has been so stingy in Portuguese league play.

The Blues will be tougher to break down in the second leg compared to the first, though. Despite seven passes into the penalty area allowed, Chelsea’s defensively smothered the game once going up a goal. Playing with a two-goal lead, manager Thomas Tuchel has no reason to take any risk and chance his defense getting opened up on the counter. This leads to long spells of harmless, defensive possession for Chelsea, which will tick time off the clock without establishing clear chances.

Both defenses are elite against allowing crosses into the penalty area and a major reason why there were only two total into the area in the first leg. Porto wasn’t able to convert crosses when it had the ball in or near positions to do so. It will be even harder in the second leg.

Porto

Porto’s attacking display in the first was an over-performance based on what my numbers and perception of the game was. They should be credited for outplaying the Blues in the first half even if the scoreboard didn’t repeat it.

But a deeper look at the stats suggests this performance is not particularly repeatable down two goals. They can’t sit in a low block and defend. When Porto came out to try to attack, they completed zero crosses into the penalty area.

More than one-third of Porto’s expected goals came from their nine corners, an area that Tuchel is likely to adjust to and clean up ahead of the second leg on Tuesday. Porto has had a great run, but there aren’t enough goals in this for them to come back. There’s no clear path in the numbers for them to create consistent chances against the Blues’ defense, which is second best in the world behind Manchester City right now.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Because Porto trails by two goals and the impetus is on them to create early chances, this game should be a low-scoring, cagey affair. Both teams had trouble breaking down the other when the game state was even. When Chelsea were ahead, Porto couldn’t generate anything and shouldn’t be able to generate much on Tuesday.

The Blues will sit on their lead and defensively possess their way into the Champions League semifinals.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-120 or better)

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