Roland Krivec/Getty Images. Pictured: Erling Haaland of Borussia Dortmund celebrates.
Dortmund vs. Sevilla Odds
| Dortmund Odds | +120 |
| Sevilla Odds | +215 |
| Draw | +265 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-182 / +145) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS All-Access |
| Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla played a thrilling 3-2 first leg, won by Dortmund three weeks ago.
That will force Sevilla to make a two-goal comeback against the Germans in Dortmund on Tuesday because Dortmund has three away goals.
Even though the first leg was one of the highest-scoring legs of the competition thus far, all signs point to the second leg being lower scoring.
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Dortmund
Dortmund will be without Jadon Sancho, and Erling Haaland left the game early against Bayern Munich on Saturday with an injury. He’ll likely play, but may not be 100%. Injuries have hurt this Dortmund team significantly, as Axel Witsel and Raphael Guerriero are also out. Guerriero and Sancho are two of their best creators from wide.
The Black and Yellow found plenty of success with quick-strike counters, especially when they were able to spring Haaland in behind. Sevilla like to build slow, and Dortmund kept them from clear finishing positions until the game’s final 10 minutes.
For all of the talk of their leaky defense, Dortmund has also been unlucky with opponents’ finishing against them. They’ve allowed 28 xGA in the Bundesliga, yet 35 goals. They haven’t been as bad as their topline numbers actually show. The same happened in the first leg, when Sevilla scored twice despite one real scoring chance and 1.15 xG per InfoGol.
Sevilla
Betting against Spanish teams in the Champions League finished 3-1 in the first legs of the knockout stage. Only Real Madrid won on a late goal after an early red card to Atalanta. Sevilla was picked apart on the counter in the first leg, with Haaland and Sancho both scoring goals
Still, Dortmund is down a lot of attacking talent in this game and will not have the same ability to hit Sevilla as effectively here. Dortmund managed just two shots after the opening 10 minutes against Bayern on Saturday, as the Black and Yellow were pinned in their own half.
The two early goals caused the game to open up and be played at a pace that Dortmund preferred, but the same is unlikely to be true in the second leg. Sevilla will go through its periods of slow build-up and look to get the ball out wide to Jesus Navas for crosses into the box.
Sevilla have the third-best defense in Spain and rank just seventh in attack. The wide open first leg was very uncharacteristic for them.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The first leg was higher scoring because of two early goals — a deflected Suso goal for Sevilla and a 25-yard wonder goal from Mahmoud Dahoud for Dortmund. That game had just 2.3 combined expected goals, with all three big-scoring chances being converted on top of the two low-percentage goals.
The onus will be on Sevilla to create chances, and they are one of the slowest tempo and build-up teams in Europe. Sevilla isn’t used to chasing goals, and Dortmund will be focused on protecting their one-and-a-half goal lead (because of away goals).
Dortmund knows its defensive liabilities this year and will probably keep more numbers behind the ball, creating long periods of slow possession build-up for Sevilla that doesn’t lead to clear scoring chances.
I project 2.72 goals in this game and will go under the three goals and hope that great finishing and fluke goals don’t send this one over the total.
Pick:Total Under 3 Goals (-107)