Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Casey Mize
Tigers vs. Orioles Odds
| Tigers Odds | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 10.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday evening and via DraftKings. | |
The teams involved may not get your betting blood boiling, but the series between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles is a lot more interesting once you look past the records. Both squads will send a young starter to the mound with aspirations of them filling rotation spots in the future. Both offenses have intriguing pieces as well.
In three games played in 2021, the Baltimore Orioles are 2-1 against Detroit. In the three-game series played in the Motor City, both teams scored 11 runs.
_BookPromo=358
The Tigers Are … OK!
Detroit is showing promise with its arms and bats. Eric Haase, Akil Baddoo, Jake Rogers and Harold Castro have been some of the younger bats contributing, with Haase and Baddoo playing major roles. The young hitters paired with Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman and the twilight of Miguel Cabrera’s career has led to progress.
The offense has been productive away from Detroit and gets the opportunity to tee off against left-handed pitcher Keegan Akin. The Tigers pair a top-10 hard hit percentage on the road against lefties with a top-10 soft hit rate, a sign there is still work to be done. Detroit averages one run every seven at-bats against left-handed pitching, compared to one every 7.7 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Run production is up on the road for Detroit, averaging 4.5 runs in road games while also hitting 1.26 home runs per game. Is it a staggering difference away from Detroit? No, but the offense showing progress benefits what looks like a solid young rotation.
Casey Mize is expected to help solidify Detroit’s rotation sooner than later but has not shown swing-and-miss stuff that appeared at times during his quick ascension through the Tigers’ minor league system. His strikeout rate is down 1.28 batters per 9 from his seven-start cup of coffee in 2020. His walk rate is lower, too, but the inability to miss bats has made Mize hittable. 41.7% of balls hit off Mize are categorized as hard hits and he has allowed a .412 slugging percentage in road starts.
Mize displayed his ability to work around his pitches being put in play against Baltimore. He earned the victory in Detroit’s only win against Baltimore, going seven shutout innings, allowing four hits and allowing a BABIP of .182. His xFIP that game was 5.15.
Orioles Searching for Pitching Consistency
The Orioles’ offense has similar issues as Detroit’s. In home games against righties, Baltimore has the 11th best hard hit rate and a top-10 soft hit percentage. The Orioles could have positive regression on their side. The offense has one of the lowest BABIP’s and groundball-to-flyball rates at home. Their .417 slugging percentage against righties at home is 15th in MLB.
It would also help if Akin showed consistency on the mound. To his credit, Akin has been asked to throw out of the bullpen, then pitch in the rotation, and is now used as an opener. He has thrown 6 1/3 innings over his last three appearances, with one of them as a start.
As a starter/opener in 2021, Akin has an 8.82 ERA and has allowed a slash line of .343/.411/.587. As a reliever he is somewhat better, allowing a 5.50 ERA with a .296/.307/.380 slash line.
Akin will give way to one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Orioles has a 5.36 bullpen ERA (28th) and 4.54 xFIP (24th). Only five other bullpens allow more fly balls than Baltimore’s.
_BookPromo=3770
Tigers-Orioles Pick
Baltimore has the fewest wins at home. At least Detroit has six teams with worse road records. 10.5 runs is a high number. Detroit has topped that total in nine of 26 games over the last month, while Baltimore topped that total in 12 of 24 contests. The run line opened at 10, which at least left an out to push.
The biggest discrepancy is the moneyline. It opened at Detroit +100/Baltimore -120 and shifted to the current line in only a couple hours. -110 is a large jump for Detroit, but in a game with two subpar teams, taking the better team playing better is the way to go.
Pick: Tigers ML (Bet to -115, or bet Orioles ML if they become plus money home underdogs.)
_BookPromo=405