Tim Keeton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins, right, battles for the ball during a recent match against Wolves.
Aston Villa vs. Burnley Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -137 [BET NOW] |
| Burnley Odds | +375 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +290 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120/-105) [BET NOW] |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds updated as of Wednesday at 11:45 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Clubs coming off monster performances go at it Thursday when Aston Villa hosts Burnley in a Premier League showdown at Villa Park.
The Villans enter this fixture fresh off a stunning 1-0 victory over Wolves, thanks to a late penalty that led them to three points at Molineux Stadium. The result vaulted Aston Villa into 10th place in England’s top flight, putting it at 20 points through 13 matches.
On the other side, Burnley might have finally seen the light at the end of the relegation tunnel after its thrilling 1-0 win over Arsenal. The Clarets had just one win in their first 10 games, but that triumph at the Emirates might have pointed them in the right direction.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be in store for this game.
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Aston Villa
The Villans were pretty fortunate to bag all three points against Wolves in their prior fixture. Anwar El Ghazi converted from the spot deep in stoppage time for Aston Villa, which lost the xG battle against Wolves by a slim 1.3-1.1 margin.
Ollie Watkins continues to power the Villans, carrying them with a team-best six goals in league play. He and his teammates will have to be on their game against Burnley, due to the fact they will be missing a handful of regulars.
Central midfielder Douglas Luiz and outside back Matty Cash, who will both miss this affair as they serve suspensions, will be the biggest voids gaffer Dean Smith has to fill in his starting lineup against the surging Clarets.
When it comes to statistical data, Aston Villa has put together some average overall numbers through 12 matches. The Villans sit on a solid 17.4 expected goals for thus far but own a disappointing 16.8 expected goals against, resulting in a pretty flat +0.8 xGDiff and +0.07 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Burnley
Manager Sean Dyche had to be thrilled with the Clarets’ effort last out, which came on the heels of a 1-1 draw with Everton.
Burnley would move clear of the relegation zone with a positive result against Aston Villa, with a win vaulting it into 16th place. That would say a lot for a team that’s absolutely struggled to produce goals, scoring just six thus far. Bobby Reid leads the Clarets’ line, but he has just two goals in his account.
As for Burnley’s advanced metrics, your assumption was likely correct. The outfit’s numbers are simply brutal.
The Clarets have generated a poor 9.1 xGs and subpar 15.7 expected goals against, resulting in a -6.6 xGDiff and -0.60 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Their xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes rank 18th out of 20 teams on the table.
Betting Analysis & Picks
If all things were equal, Aston Villa would be a clear favorite to snag all three points in this important fixture. However, the loss of Cash and Luiz really evens things out, in my opinion, and gives Burnley a fighting chance.
That said, I am fancying the Clarets on the alternative line of +1 at -162 as my top play. If you’re feeling a little more frisky, venture a little bit lower on the spread lines for slightly better numbers.
I will also back both teams to score at the fair price offered on DraftKings. Aston Villa conceded at least two goals in its last three home tilts, all of which ended in defeats. Add in the fact I simply don’t see the visitors keeping the Villans off the scoreboard, and I like my chances in this intriguing match.
Picks: Burnley +1 (-162) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-129)
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