Stephen Hopson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb.
After taking a good, hard look at Thursday’s matchups using the Action Labs Player Props tool, there are two strikeout totals I’m targeting.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Matt Manning — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Tigers vs. Orioles | Tigers (+120) |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Despite fading him in this spot, I’m quite bullish on Manning. The young Detroit arm has continued to produce quality start after quality start since being called up in mid-June.
He’s also had some clunkers, which has inflated his ERA to 6.33 and his WHIP to 1.51. However, I think Detroit fans should be pumped for his future, as there’s a lot of potential.
Yet, of more importance to this play, Manning hasn’t learned how to miss bats at this level. While he posted 10 K/9 or more in every level since low-A ball, he’s posted just 4.85 K/9 in the show while ranking the first percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff rate.
So, he’s been mostly a pitch-to-contact guy. That was clear in his start against the Orioles on July 31, where he went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball and struck out just three batters. However, given he allowed seven hits, two walks and a 6.30 xFIP in that start, there’s an argument he was a little lucky.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore lineup has struck out at the ninth-lowest rate over the past 30 days (21.9%) and the eighth-lowest rate at home during in stretch (20.8%). Plus, the Orioles have posted a whopping 116 wRC+ at home since July 1.
I think Manning struggles with Baltimore — at the minimum with missing bats — and the Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at just 2.3 strikeouts. I’ll happily take the under 3.5 number with the juice.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Logan Webb — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Giants vs. Rockies | Giants (-200) |
| Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
I’m a big Webb fan. He consistently puts up quality starts for the Giants, plus he’s been perfect in his spot behind Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani in the rotation.
However, there’s an argument he’s been the best pitcher on the team since May started. Webb hasn’t allowed more than two earned in a start since May 11, posting a 1.72 ERA and a .89 WHIP in that stretch. Plus, he’s struck out 49 batters in 47 innings, and the Giants posted an 8-1 record in those starts.
He’s also great at home, where he’s posted a 1.85 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in eight starts while punching out 37 in 34 innings.
So, Webb has been on a roll, impossible to hit at Oracle Park, and gets to face the worst road offense in baseball in Colorado. Over the past 30 days and in away games, the Rockies have posted the 10th worst wRC+ (91) while striking out at the third highest rate at 26.4 percent.
I absolutely love Webb in this spot. Even though he allowed six earned to the Rockies earlier this season, it was at Coors Field, and he still managed to punch out five Rockies in 3 2/3 innings.
The Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at 5.6 strikeouts, and you can still bet over 5.5 at plus money at BetMGM as of writing.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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