Ralph Freso / Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish
Following a 3-0 day in yesterday’s edition of this column, the MLB Player Props team here at Action is still hitting at a 63% rate.
After taking a good, hard look at Thursday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I’ve found two strikeout totals on the card that may provide value.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Patrick Corbin — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Nationals vs. Marlins | Nationals (+105) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
There’s no reason Corbin’s strikeout total should be set above 4.5.
He is facing the Marlins, who have posted the highest strikeout rate vs. LHPs over the past 30 days (28.8%), but Corbin doesn’t strike out anybody. He’s hit the over 5.5 number in just six of his 24 starts this season (25% hit rate), and I think that creates good value on the under at this price.
While he managed to strike out six the last time he pitched in Miami, he recorded just a 31% CSW rate (called strike plus Whiff), which is barely above average for Corbin.
Plus, I don’t expect him to have another big road game today. Corbin’s facing Miami for the third time this season, when historically offenses can figure out opposing pitchers. Plus, Corbin has posted just a 6.71 K/9 on the road this season, compared to 7.73 K/9 at home.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Corbin at just 4.6 strikeouts tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections has him notching 4.88. Either way, I’m happy playing the under 5.5 at this price, even against the Marlins.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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Yu Darvish — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)
| Padres vs. Dodgers | Padres (+112) |
| Time | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Darvish has a perfect situation today.
Darvish has faced the Dodgers three times this year, and has roasted their lineup all three times:
- 4/17 vs. LAD: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 9 K
- 4/23 @ LAD: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 9 K
- 6/21 @ LAD: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 11 K
He’s struck out 29 Dodgers in juts 20 innings of work against them. While the Dodgers have struck out at the eighth-lowest rate in MLB this season (22.8%), they’ve been slightly more vulnerable recently.
Since Darvish’s last meeting with the Dodgers, L.A. is striking out at the 12th highest rate against RHPs in MLB (24.1%), and the fourth highest rate against RHPs on the road (25.6%).
Meanwhile, Darvish has continued to roll over batters and has posted otherworldly strikeout numbers at PetCo Park. Darvish has struck out 110 batters in 84 innings at home this season, adding up to 11.79 K/9 at home (compared to just 9.12 on the road). Plus, he’s hit the over 6.5 strikeout number in 10 of his 14 home starts this season, which is a 71% hit rate for a plus-money prop.
While I’m willing to take DraftKings over 5.5 number at -165 as well, I think Darvish has a really great chance to hit the over 6.5 number FanDuel is offering at +124.
Either way, the Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting Darvish with 7.1 punchouts in this matchup, making my over 6.5 play a highly-rated wager
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
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