Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Germán Márquez.
Rockies vs. Mets Game 1 Odds
| Rockies Odds | +110 |
| Mets Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 5 |
| Time | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Thursday morning via BetMGM. | |
Wednesday night’s game between the Colorado Rockies and New York Mets was postponed due to rain so the two teams will finish up a four-game series with Thursday’s seven-inning doubleheader.
Colorado took the first game of the series via a 3-2 scoreline, but the Mets bounced back to take Game 2 with a 3-1 win. New York, which is 22-20, sits in first place in the NL East, but has a -12 run differential this season.
Only two teams in the league have fewer wins than Colorado this season at 19-30, plus the club is an abysmal 3-18 away from Coors Field.
Rockies Turning To Ace Márquez in Game 1 Opener
The Rockies will have their ace in Germán Márquez on the mound for Game 1. Márquez has struggled this season at times but is coming off his best start of the season, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing four hits while striking out eight against Arizona.
His strikeout rate is up this season and his HardHit% is down. The biggest issue has been his walk rate, allowing 5.16 BB/9, more than double his career rate.
It will be Antonio Senzatela, who is expected to start Game 2 for Colorado. Through nine starts, Senzatela is 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA. Teams are batting .275 against him and his fastball has been crushed. He really struggles to miss bats and has just a 5.40 K/9 rate, which ranks in the bottom 5% of the league.
We always know the Rockies are going to play much better at home. They always have. But my goodness have they taken it to a new level of bad on the road this season. Colorado is somehow just 3-18 on the road and is averaging 2.7 runs per game.
Away from Coors Field this season they are batting .203 with a .574 OPS, .255 wOBA and 59 wRC+. Needless to say, those are all the worst in the league… by a wide margin. They have managed to hit just 12 home runs on the road this season, the next fewest has 20 homers.
Mets’ Stroman Looks For More Success Against Colorado
For the Mets, they will send Marcus Stroman to the mound for Game 1. After opting out of the 2020 season, Stroman has been great this year for New York. In nine starts this year, he has a 2.75 ERA and teams are batting .231 against him. Stroman has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts.
Game 2 will be Joey Lucchesi getting the nod for New York. Lucchesi has been more of a long inning reliever or opener type for the Mets this year. He has made four starts this and seven total appearances.
Lucchesi has struggled as a starter, not pitching more than four innings in a game this season. In 12 2/3 innings as a starter, he has allowed 12 runs. Lucchesi is impossible to predict because he has a 7.32 ERA, but a 2.99 FIP and 3.14 xERA — the largest differential of any pitcher in the league.
While admittedly better, this Mets; lineup isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. New York ranks 29th in the league in runs per game; 27th in batting average; 28th in OPS; 26th in wOBA; and, 24th in wRC+ this season.
To make matters worse, the Mets are basically fielding a AAA roster. The current injured list includes Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Pillar, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso and possibly Dominic Smith. Their top bat available will be Francisco Lindor, who is hitting .185 this season.
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Rockies-Mets Pick
These are two of the worst offenses in the league, which that coming under normal circumstances. Throw in all the Mets’ injuries and the Rockies’ dreadful road numbers, and runs will likely be hard to come by in both games These two teams combined for five runs in the series opener, then four in the next game.
Both of the Game 1 starters have faced these these lineups this season. Márquez allowed just two hits and two runs, while striking out six in seven innings against the Mets on April 17.
A day later, Stroman had his best outing of the season, allowing no runs and just three hits over eight innings against the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.
That said, I like the Game 1 starters to have strong performances once again, as these two offenses continue struggling to score runs.
Pick: Game 1 — Total Under 5 Runs
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