Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Pogba.
Roma vs. Manchester United Odds
| Roma Odds | +270 |
| Manchester United Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+123 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
It was April 2018 when Roma pulled off one of the best comebacks in Champions League history, beating Barcelona 3-0 in the second leg of the quarterfinals and lighting Stadio Olimpico on fire with a heroic performance.
A little more than three years later, and Roma need to pull another of those performances out of their hat. This time, though, it’s going to be more difficult.
Manchester United is in-form and coming off a 6-2 win in the first leg. Roma do have two away goals to play with, if you’re looking for any positives.
Let’s find the betting value on this game, with a trip to Gdansk, Poland, which I hear is lovely, for the Europa League final on the line.
Roma
Roma are in miserable form at the moment. They’ve lost four of their last five games in all competitions, and the three defeats aside from Manchester United have been against Torino, Cagliari and Sampdoria.
Paulo Fonseca’s team has struggled to limit opponents’ chance creation. United registered 3.6 expected goals last week and even Sampdoria got 1.4 over the weekend. The worst result was back on April 18, when Torino created 3.7 xG worth of chances.
While Roma’s games are usually exciting and end-to-end, it hasn’t translated to domestic success. That’s why Jose Mourinho is coming in at the end of the season. There is some solid attacking talent in the squad, but defensive stability is necessary for Roma to get back in the Champions League, or even the Europa League at this pace.
Obviously, Roma need a miracle here. Their 3-4-2-1 formation lends itself to some gung-ho attacking with fullbacks rampaging down the wings, so expect them to try to hit United early and often.
The problem for Roma will come in defending the counter. Down four goals, though, they will have to accept some risk at the back.
Manchester United
United undoubtedly wish they didn’t come into this one on a week’s rest, especially given the form they find themselves in.
The Red Devils have won six of their last seven matches in all competitions, and they’ve done so in very impressive fashion. Only one of those six wins was of the one-goal variety, back on April 4 against Brighton.
During that run, United have registered at least 1.8 xG five times. The two games they didn’t were the second leg in the Europa League quarterfinals against Granada — a game in which they already sealed a spot in the semifinals after a first-leg win — and a 0-0 draw against Leeds.
United’s only key injury right now is to Anthony Martial, who could be healthy for the Europa League final. At this point, though, Martial would be unlikely to fit in the United starting XI given the form Edinson Cavani is in. The Red Devils are clearly a better team with the Uruguayan goalscorer up top, and moving Paul Pogba to a left-midfield role has given them some fantastic balance.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I understand that Roma need at least a win and are going to come out firing in hopes of another miraculous comeback in European play.
I just don’t see it happening. One team has won six of seven and is second in the world’s best league. The other has lost four of five and might not be playing in Europe next season.
Manchester United’s moneyline is a tad low here, but the real value is on the total. These teams went over any number you could’ve imagined in the first leg, and I envision a similar matchup this time. Roma will control possession and may even have the better chances throughout. They have no choice but to go for it.
While Roma aren’t in great form, they are still creating chances at a decent rate. United have more quality going forward and are also doing well going forward.
Live a little and bet the over on what should be an end-to-end matchup with plenty of shots on goal.
Pick: Over 3.5 goals +123
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