Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones
NFL Prop Bets
| Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Over 70.5 Rush Yards (-110) | FanDuel |
With the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, the Packers should lean on Aaron Jones heavily tonight.
There are a few other factors working in Jones’ favor, too:
- The Packers will likely employ a run-heavy game plan with snow forecasted.
- They’ll welcome Corey Linsley back, whose 89.8 Pro Football Focus grade ranks first among all center — he should be a boost to their run game.
- Jamaal Williams is not expected to play, which means A.J. Dillon will back up Jones after the rookie returned only two weeks ago after missing a month due to COVID-19.
The Titans will have their hands full with Aaron Rogers and the passing offense, so it’s not like they can sell out to stop Jones. He’s faced an eight-man box only 19% of the time (30th out of 52) and should be able to break a few big runs.
I would bet this up to 75.5, but here are Jones’ projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 70.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 71.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 72.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 73.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 74.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 75.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 76.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
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