Texas Tech vs. Texas Odds

A top-15 showdown takes place in Austin tonight as No. 15 Texas Tech battles No. 4 Texas.

So far, Texas Tech have won the games they were supposed to and struggled against tougher opposition. Only two of their 10 wins have come against teams currently inside KenPom‘s Top 100.

Texas is still perfect in the Big 12 after a win over West Virginia that featured an ending you have to see to believe.

ANDREW JONES. CLUTCH. 🥶

No. 4 Texas defeats No. 14 West Virginia in a comeback thriller! pic.twitter.com/Bmhe6f9mPZ

— ESPN (@espn) January 9, 2021

A 10-1 start to the season has plenty of people counting Texas as a contender. Will the Red Raiders stop the Longhorns in their tracks?

When Texas Tech has the ball

For the Red Raiders to be successful on offense, they need to feast on second-chance points and getting to the free-throw line because they are simply a mediocre shooting team. Texas Tech rates out as average in effective field percentage, two-point percentage and 3-point percentage. That said, the Red Raiders do like to get the ball inside as they only attempt 3-pointers on 32.3% of their field goal attempts.

The main reason Texas Tech has been successful on offense is because they rarely turn the ball over (16.3% turnover rate) and they get to the charity stripe more than any team in the Big 12 at over 45%. Not only are they getting to the free throw line at a ridiculous rate, but they’re making over 77% of their free throws in Big 12 contests.

The Longhorns counter with a top-five defense in terms of efficiency (KenPom). They are the No. 1 team in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed and are holding their opponents under 44% from inside the arc.

The discrepancy in height is an interesting wrinkle in this matchup. Texas Tech does not have anyone over 6’7″, so they will be forced to play small ball. Against West Virginia, Shaka Smart left Jericho Sims and Greg Brown on the floor despite the fact that Bob Huggins went with a small lineup for most of the game.

Will Shaka Smart stick with the same strategy on Wednesday?

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When Texas has the ball

Because of their height advantage, Texas will likely look to get the ball inside as often as possible  Freshman Greg Brown has turned into the Longhorns’ top scoring option, as he has the highest usage rate in the Big 12.

Brown and the Longhorns are scoring 1.09 points per possession in conference play, which is a drastic improvement from last season when they averaged only 0.93 points per possession.

Texas Tech is also one of the best defensive teams in the country because of their pack-line defense, which is only allowing only 44.3% inside the 3-point line. They are also incredible at forcing turnovers, as they have the fourth highest turnover rate in the country, per KenPom.

Where Texas can make hay is beyond the arc, as Texas Tech has allowed Big 12 opponents to shoot 36% from 3-point land.

Texas vs. Texas Tech Best Bet

I think this will be a grind it out game played in the half-court since both of these squads play at a below average tempo. These are also two of the best defenses in the country, as they both rank inside the top-five in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Therefore, I think this is going to be a really low scoring game.

I only have 129.74 points projected for this game, so I think there is some value on Under 134.5 points.

Pick: Under 134.5 | Play down to 133