PEDRO PARDO/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, outlines his picks to lead Super Bowl 55 in rushing and receiving yards. Find more of his prop bets here.
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Leonard Fournette Most Rushing Yards (+175)
The majority of my Super Bowl prop bets are on unders. That’s no coincidence: Sportsbooks are getting significantly more money on the overs — to be fair, who wants to root for a player to do nothing? Still, many of these props are inflated as a result, exposing some value on unders.
That said, there are other ways to bet on big performances from certain players. This prop is a good example: I consider it as a unique way to bet on Fournette’s over.
I’m bullish on Fournette and Ronald Jones against the Chiefs, who rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA against the run — they practically invite teams to run against them. As a result, the Bucs should continue to ride “Playoff Lenny,” who should get 2-3 more carries than Jones in this game.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect the Chiefs to run much. When they do, it’s likely to be an even 50/50 split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. Taking Fournette at +175 is also a way to bet against both Kansas City running backs here.
My fair odds for Fournette to lead the Super Bowl in rushing yards is +135. I would only bet this down to +150, but DraftKings is offering +175 as of Thursday.
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Travis Kelce Most Receiving Yards (+260)
Like my reasoning for Fournette above, I consider this as a sneaky way to bet on Kelce’s over.
I am right in line with his yardage prop at 95.5 yards. However, he and Tyreek Hill are more likely to have ceiling games with the Chiefs lacking a true No. 3 receiving threat.
The Bucs spread the ball around much more, making it more difficult for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown to hit their ceilings.
I have Kelce’s fair odds to lead the game in receiving yards closer to +170 and would bet it down to +210. FanDuel is offering it at +260 as of Thursday.
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