Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs RB Darrel Williams
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is breaking down his favorite bets for Super Bowl 55 as he makes them. Find his latest bets below.
Darrel Williams Under 2.5 Rec (-130)
This is the first Super Bowl player prop to immediately stand out.
The Chiefs’ backfield will be very tricky to project since they’re likely to use the “hot hand” approach with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
Williams averaged 60% routes run with CEH out of the lineup in Week 13, Week 16 and the Divisional Round. By contrast, Williams averaged 21% routes run in the past three games with CEH in the lineup (Week 14, Week 15 and the AFC Championship). For the Super Bowl, I’m projecting Williams to be in the 35-40% range, which would place his projection closer to 1.7 receptions.
The other variable that adds value to this under is the availability of Le’Veon Bell. He was inactive for the AFC Championship due to a knee injury but should be available for the Super Bowl. I’m not expecting Bell to see more than a few snaps, but if he ends up getting more playing time than anticipated, it would only eat into Williams’ usage.
The juice on this under has already moved, but BetMGM is still offering it at -130 as of Thursday afternoon. I would bet it down to -180.
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