Getty Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers, Travis Kelce and Tom Brady.
Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +210 | ||
| Packers | +210 | ||
| Bills | +325 | ||
| Buccaneers | +450 | ||
| Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus. | |||
And then there were four.
With conference championships set, we’re taking this opportunity to look ahead and project Super Bowl chances for the remaining quartet.
Using the team ratings of the five analysts who power our NFL PRO Projections, we created consensus projections for each team to win the Super Bowl, then compared those to each team’s implied probability of winning based on DraftKings‘ odds.
You’ll find the difference between those two chances below.
And finally, we also used our consensus ratings to project spreads for all four possible Super Bowl matchups.
Note: All of these projections assume Patrick Mahomes will play in the AFC Championship Game.
Super Bowl Projections
| Team | Implied Prob. | Our Proj. | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 30.4% | 28.8% | -1.6% |
| Packers | 30.4% | 24.7% | -5.7% |
| Bills | 17.1% | 22.5% | +5.4% |
| Buccaneers | 22.1% | 24.0% | +1.9% |
Note: We’ve removed the vig — or the tax sportsbooks charge to take a bet — from the implied probabilities above, so they add up to 100% for the purpose of direct comparison with our projections.
Convert more odds with our Betting Odds Calculator.
Projected Super Bowl Spreads
| AFC Winner | NFC Winner | Proj. Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Packers | Chiefs -1.2 |
| Bills | Packers | Bills -0.1 |
| Chiefs | Buccaneers | Chiefs -0.8 |
| Bills | Buccaneers | Buccaneers -0.3 |