Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Deandre Ayton.
Suns vs. Spurs Odds
| Suns Odds | -10.5 |
| Spurs Odds | +10.5 |
| Moneyline | -650 / +450 |
| Over/Under | 222.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | League Pass |
| Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM | |
The San Antonio Spurs will be shorthanded on Saturday against the Phoenix Suns, having clinched a spot in the play-in tournament and taking the opportunity to rest some of their limping players who have been important to their limited success this year.
The Suns, on the other hand, should have a reason to win this game, and because of the mismatch in talent and motivation come in as heavy favorites.
It’s been profitable this month to fade tanking teams, so does the same rule apply to a team that’s mailing it in? Let’s run through the numbers and find some value here.
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Phoenix Suns
It’s been a grind all month long for the Suns, who have been eyeing the top spot in the Western Conference since Donovan Mitchell went down with an injury that would end his regular season, but it may very well come up short.
Trailing by 1 1/2 games, Phoenix will need to win its remaining two contests against the Spurs and have Utah lose to Sacramento on Sunday in order to grab the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. That’s reason enough for the Suns to give this one a fight, and finding teams that are motivated to win at this point in the season is very difficult.
Despite having good reason to want to win down the stretch, seeing as the top seed will have a chance to play the Grizzlies or Spurs (as it stands now), and the No. 2 seed is guaranteed to play either the Lakers or Warriors, the Suns haven’t looked great lately. They’ve won just two of their last five, covering in one of those games.
Over those five games, defense has been a huge issue for Phoenix, a team that has dazzled on that end all season. The Suns have allowed a whopping 124.4 points per 100 possessions in that span, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and have also ranked fourth last in the rebounding department. This team has scored the basketball, but by all measures hasn’t worked hard whatsoever.
Speaking of struggles on the glass, Deandre Ayton is listed as questionable for this one due to left knee soreness, which could really be a thorn in Phoenix’s side. With the way this team has been playing, Ayton very well may sit as it looks ahead to the playoffs.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs had a daunting schedule ahead of them about a month ago with the Pelicans and Kings breathing down their necks, but they’re in. San Antonio will occupy the fourth and final Western Conference spot in the upcoming play-in tournament, meeting the winner of Sunday’s game between the Warriors and Grizzlies, which will determine the eighth seed in the playoffs.
With that, San Antonio will begin to prepare for the postseason. DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl have already been ruled out due to rest, while Trey Lyles (ankle), Derrick White (ankle) and Luka Samanic (hand) remain sidelined with injuries. Rudy Gay (right heel soreness) and Dejounte Murray (lower back soreness) join that crowded injury report as questionable for the game.
The question here really is just about who exactly will be on the floor for the Spurs. With three starters likely out, and three key reserves, San Antonio will be relying heavily on the likes of Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker and Devin Vassell. Points certainly could be difficult to come by, though the Suns will do their best to help with a flat-looking defense.
Suns-Spurs Pick
The Spurs have won just twice in their last 10 games, though they’ve at least covered five times over that span. Still, while the Suns have remained somewhat disinterested and should be due for a letdown after the Trail Blazers win, they will be running out a nearly 100% healthy team, which is much, much more than you can say about San Antonio.
Phoenix has a real reason to play here, and even with some horrific play on the defensive end, it’s hard not to love this team’s chances against a short rotation that’s made up of bench players in a game it wouldn’t mind winning.
Pick: Suns -10.5 (-110)
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