Gareth Fuller – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Webster.
Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -155 |
| Brighton Odds | +390 |
| Draw | +325 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-134 / +108) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Arsenal and Brighton meet at the Emirates Sunday to close out their respective Premier League seasons.
Arsenal’s slim hopes of qualifying for the Europa League ended on Wednesday when West Ham beat West Brom. The Gunners can still qualify for the Europa Conference League, but that will not a great consolation prize for one of the biggest clubs in England. Arsenal have been in better form to end the season, winning their last four matches, so we’ll see if the Gunners can finish their season strong.
Brighton’s season has been filled with missed chances and results they don’t deserve. However, the Seagulls have survived relegation and will be in the Premier League next season. They’ve pulled off a massive upset against Manchester City on Tuesday, erasing a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. They’ve also pulled off upsets against Liverpool and Tottenham, so they are capable of beating Arsenal on the road.
Arsenal Struggle on Home Pitch
Arsenal have really struggled to create chances on the domestic front this season, averaging only 1.39 xG per match. The Gunners’ defense has been stout, though, conceding just 1.16 xG per match, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League.
Mikel Arteta typically plays out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is the most common setup in modern football. The formation allows Arsenal to deploy three attacking midfielders going forward, which can overwhelm opposing defenses. It has helped Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka create a ton of chances for the Gunners.
Most of Arsenal’s struggles this season have come at the Emirates Stadium. They actually have a -0.36 xGD for the season and only have five wins against non-relegated teams, so I think they’re going to struggle against an underrated team like Brighton.
Brighton Are Much Better Than Their Record
The Seagulls’ 2020-21 season will go down in history as the unluckiest season for a Premier League team. Brighton have nothing left to play for in this match, but the difference between Brighton’s actual results and their expected goals/points is quite astonishing.
As you can see from the table above, the main reason Brighton aren’t higher in the table is because their offense has squandered a ton of high-quality chances.
Even though the Seagulls’ have struggled to finish all of their chances in front of net, their defense has been unbelievable this season, as it only allows 1.06 xG per match, which is the third-best mark in the Premier League. I think they should be able to shut down Arsenal’s struggling offense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Since both teams really have nothing to play for in this match, I think Arsenal is wildly overvalued at home. Brighton’s underlying metrics are better than that of the Gunners, and Arsenal have struggled at home.
Therefore, I am going to back Brighton’s spread of +1 at -136 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Brighton. +1 (-136)
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