Sam Bagnall – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Neto.
Wolves vs. Burnley Odds
| Wolves Odds | +105 |
| Burnley Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+128 / -159) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Burnley are probably safe, but a result on Sunday morning against Wolverhampton Wanderers would go a long way in ensuring another Premier League season.
The Clarets enter the matchup six points ahead of 18-place Fulham with a game in hand. It would take an epic comeback for the Cottagers to leap over Burnley, but who knows in the Premier League?
Wolves are in Premier League purgatory, 14 points clear of the relegation zone and 17 back of the top four. It’s been a difficult season for them without star striker Raul Jimenez for most of the campaign, but this is a great get-right spot for Nuno Spirito Santo’s side.
Let’s find the betting value:
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Wolves
Wolves enter this game coming off a pair of 1-0 victories over Fulham and bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United. Neither was particularly flashy, with Wolves registering a combined 1.66 expected goals. A win is a win, though, or something like that.
Wolves’ attack this season has struggled, and Jimenez’s devastating head injury back on Nov. 29 at Arsenal is a big reason why. The Mexican striker hasn’t played since, and Wolves have missed him dearly. Since then, they have accumulated just 24 points from 22 games, scoring 21 goals in the process. It’s very underwhelming for a side that has plenty of pace and flair going forward.
Spirito Santo knows that Wolves have to win games ugly, though. They can’t match the attacking prowess of the top sides in the Premier League, but their technical ability is far superior to the likes of Burnley.
Pedro Neto has stepped up this season, filling the role left by Diogo Jota’s sale to Liverpool before the season, with five goals and six assists. The likes of Daniel Podence (three goals in 21 league games) and Fabio Silva (three goals in 26) have not stepped up since Jimenez’s injury, though.
The defense is strong and organized, though. Wolves have allowed four goals in their last five games, and that includes giving up three against West Ham in a loss on April 5.
Burnley
It looked like Burnley might begin mounting a charge toward safety when they registered a pair of draws against Leicester City and Arsenal before beating Everton on March 13. Unfortunately for them, though, the Clarets followed that result up with three straight defeats against Southampton, Newcastle and Manchester United.
The Clarets should still be face. They might be less talented than Fulham, but Sean Dyche’s team has a distinct identity that makes it difficult to play against. Their recipe for Premier League safety has been to be tough and organized with minimal technical ability. It’s worked for the Clarets, who are in their fifth season back in the English top flight.
Burnley’s best playmaker is left winger Dwight McNeil. The left-footed Englishman only has two goals and three assists in 30 league games this season, but that is a product of Burnley’s style and not his ability. Chris Wood paces the Clarets with seven goals this season.
Burnley’s non-penalty expected goal difference, according to Understat, ranks them 17th in the Premier League at -19.99. They’re not one of the three worst teams in the league, but they’re not far away from being one either.
Burnley finished seventh back in 2017-18, but that’s as good as it’s going to get for them in the Premier League. Expect more seasons like this past long as they stay in the top flight, assuming their style and lack of investment stay the same.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Wolves at a plus number here is good value. Burnley have allowed eight goals in their last three games, all losses, and there’s a good chance that Wolves’ pace catches them out at least once in this game.
Don’t think too much about this one. Take the team with more attacking talent since it has also remained defensively stout throughout the season.
Pick: Wolves +105
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