Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio.
West Ham vs. Arsenal Odds
| West Ham Odds | +200 |
| Arsenal Odds | +138 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The final day of the Premier League schedule prior to the international break features a London derby, with surging Arsenal visiting West Ham United on Sunday at London Stadium.
The Gunners just defeated fellow North London rival Tottenham Hotspur last week before advancing to the Europa League quarterfinal round. On the other side, West Ham was dealt a defeat at the hands of mighty Manchester United.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be on deck.
West Ham
After Manchester City, Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion, the Hammers boast the league’s fourth-best defense when it comes to expected goals. The double pivot of Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček in the center of the park has excelled at covering space and recovering the ball.
The club’s defense is mid-pack in shots allowed, but West Ham is in the top five in non-penalty xG per shot allowed. The Hammers will allow shots to the Gunners, but not many high quality attempts.
This situation plays into Arsenal’s biggest issue for most of the season. The Gunners possess the ball and look to create overloads on one side (usually the left) to get crosses into the box. However, the Hammers usually don’t allow many big scoring chances. West Ham should be able to stifle Arsenal, forcing its foe into long periods of safe possession.
At the other end of the pitch, the Hammers are as direct and effective of a counterattacking team as anyone in the league. Pablo Fornals could potentially return for the attack to help pull the strings in between Arsenal’s defensive and midfield lines.
Michail Antonio had a quiet game against Manchester United until the final 10 minutes, but there’s still no more important player to the West Ham attack. Antonio and Souček are excellent at winning headers in the box, and the Hammers break quickly when they win the ball high up the pitch.
Antonio averages 0.52 xG per 90 minutes, with Souček at 0.23 xG as a typically deep lying midfielder who likes to get forward. West Ham will allow crosses into the penalty area, but those crosses don’t usually turn into dangerous chances.
Arsenal
The Gunners’ youth movement with Emile Smith-Rowe and Bukayo Saka has helped to transform them into a better attacking side. Arsenal has been pretty good since late December, but hasn’t really improved in the table. Now, striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is in a rift with the club and might not start.
Aubameyang isn’t what he has been in seasons past, with his numbers on the decline. However, he’s still their best striker. Saka is 50-50 to play and the Gunners will find it difficult to break down a stingy Hammers defense if it can’t get behind this West Ham backline.
When these two teams met early in the season, Arsenal controlled the possession, but West Ham hit it up the gut for counters on multiple occasions and should have won the game.
Arsenal’s win against Spurs was more a matter of them being bad than the Gunners being good. They created just two big scoring chances from open play in the game despite some questionable Tottenham tactics. The Gunners are improved, but are still getting too much respect in the market.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’ve been consistently lower than the market on Arsenal all year, and I’m starting to wonder if my numbers are slow to react to its improvement. However, even FiveThirtyEight’s projections, which show the Gunners as the fifth-best EPL team in the PL right now, project the Hammers as favorites.
That said, It’s a good sell-high spot on Arsenal headed into the break after a midweek match with Olympiacos in Europa League action. Meanwhile, West Ham lost on an own goal, but did a pretty good job of keeping Manchester United out of scoring positions in its fixture.
My projection make West Ham via Draw No Bet at -105 odds, so I will back the club at London Stadium at +110 or better.
Pick: West Ham — Draw No Bet (+117)
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