Matthew Childs/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -215 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-114 / -109) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Tottenham survived a sluggish second half and a controversial VAR decision on Thursday to take down Fulham, 1-0.
Spurs will look to win their third consecutive Premier League game on Sunday when Crystal Palace visits Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
While half-by-half splits are often noisy in small sample sizes, Tottenham’s tactical style offers value in backing them in the first half.
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Tottenham
Tottenham wilted in the second half against Fulham on Thursday, as the Cottagers nearly equalized multiple times in the first 25 minutes of the second half.
Spurs looked tired after a high-energy first half of pressing. When they pressed with their front four of Harry Kane, Heung-min Son, Gareth Bale and Dele Alli, they created multiple big chances and could have been two up at half if they took them.
In many ways, Spurs win against Fulham was reminiscent of so many Tottenham games all year. Play a great first half, create enough chances to get a lead and then run out of gas and try to protect that lead. When Spurs met Palace in the reverse fixture, they dominated the first half, led 1-0, and conceded a late equalizer.
Tottenham first half vs. second half
- First half: 24 goals scored, seven allowed
- Second half: 18 goals scored, 20 allowed
Spurs’ biggest weakness is its backline, and that issue is compounded when manager José Mourinho plays the two inferior fullbacks — Matt Doherty and Ben Davies — over Sergio Reguilon and Serge Aurier. Their pressing, defending and wide creativity is all much better with the best fullbacks, and both should play given that they were rotated on Thursday.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace stifled Manchester United in the midweek, but that was more United being unable to string together attacks and produce consistent attacks than Palace’s defensive prowess.
For the year, Palace is second worst in xG difference and the third-worst team in the league by my own metrics. Palace will have Wilfried Zaha back on Sunday in some capacity, but it’s not clear that he will start, which is another reason to look to back Tottenham in the opening 45 minutes.
Even with Zaha returning, Palace is in both injury and form crisis. Multiple usual defensive starters and midfielder James McCarthy have been ruled out. They’ve looked more porous than usual in the back and have allowed at least one expected goal in each of their last six PL matches.
Weaker attacks like Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle all found plenty of big scoring opportunities against Palace, and Spurs should be no different.
Betting Analysis & Picks
My projection makes Spurs money line at -180 for the game, so no value on them over 90 minutes.
But Spurs should be able to get off to a fast start here with likely the same attacking front four as Thursday and better fullbacks on Sunday. I don’t trust Tottenham enough in the second half to back the spread in this one, but taking Spurs in the first half has been very profitable all year and I’m going back to it on Sunday.
Pick: Spurs first half money line (-104)
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